Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Financials · Property & Casualty Insurance · NYSE
A leading US property-casualty insurer known for its robust underwriting profitability and significant market share in the personal and commercial auto insurance segments.
What Progressive Corporation does
The Progressive Corporation, through its insurance subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products. The company operates through two main segments, Personal Lines and Commercial Lines, and serves both individual consumers and business customers.
Themes: personal lines insurance, commercial lines insurance, auto insurance, underwriting profitability
Fundamentals
- Price$219.28 as of 2026-08-21 close
- Market cap$127.5B as of 2026-08-21
- 1-year return-11.9% 2025-08-21 close $248.95 → 2026-08-21 close $219.28
- P/E10.40 as of 2026-08-24
- Net margin+12.8% as of 2026-08-24
- ROE+35.4% as of 2026-08-24
- Debt / equity0.24 as of 2026-08-24
- Revenue growth (YoY)+10.5% as of 2026-08-24
- Revenue CAGR (3y)+20.9% SEC XBRL
- Beta0.23 as of 2026-08-24
- Last reported earnings2026-07-15 SEC EDGAR Form 8-K (Item 2.02)
Dividend: yield +0.2%; 4-year non-decreasing per-share dividend streak (SEC XBRL).
How PGR compares in its sector
- price-to-earnings ratiobottom 25% 525 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- net profit marginmiddle range 538 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- operating marginmiddle range 534 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- return on equitytop 10% 575 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- 3-year revenue CAGRtop 25% 347 covered Financials peers
- indicated dividend yieldbottom 10% 453 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- free cash flow (absolute dollars, latest fiscal year)top 10% 431 covered Financials peers, as of FY2025
Position among covered Financials companies that report each metric (minimum 5 peers). A relative position within our covered catalog — not a valuation, quality, or investment judgment. A higher percentile is simply a higher value (for P/E, more expensive on earnings — never "better"). Informational only.
Top 10 scores & list membership
PGR is not currently in any published Top 10 list. Its scores are below.
Long-term score
60.3 #174 of 987 scored · #86 of 191 in Financials
Growth 78th (3-year revenue CAGR 20.9%, revenue growth year over year 10.5%) and financial health 73rd (debt to equity 0.2, free cash flow margin 17.5%); weakest is capital return (36th, consecutive years of dividend increases 4 years).
Short-term score
46.9 #993 of 1,704 scored · #179 of 277 in Financials
Catalysts 62nd: open-market insider buys in 90 days 39, the analyst consensus rating is unchanged since the prior reading; momentum 56th: its RSI momentum gauge is in neutral territory; weakest is volume and participation 17th: it gapped 8.2% below the previous close and has not traded back through the level it left behind — an "unfilled gap", which describes a price range no trade has since crossed and is not a forecast that it will be crossed.
Scores as of 21 Aug 2026. Each bar is a percentile: how this company ranked against every company the score ranked, 0–100. A list is a published formula and its output, not a recommendation. Method version 2.
Dividend coverage (FY2025)
Covered by reported results. In FY2025, PGR's dividend was covered by reported results (earnings payout 25%, free-cash-flow payout 17%). This describes past coverage, not a forecast.
- Earnings payout25% dividends / net income
- Free-cash-flow payout17% dividends / (operating cash flow − capex)
Coverage derived from reported SEC EDGAR XBRL figures for FY2025 (dividends paid vs. net income and free cash flow, same fiscal year). This describes PAST coverage for one fiscal year — it does not predict whether a dividend will be maintained, raised, or cut, and a one-year payout ratio can be distorted by non-recurring items. Informational only — not financial advice.
How Progressive Corporation looks technically
Progressive Corporation (PGR) is trading 4.1% above its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a longer-term uptrend. Its 50-day average crossed above its 200-day average about 13 trading days ago — a "golden cross", a bullish long-term signal. There is no clear trend right now — the price is choppy (ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 16, below the 25 that marks a real trend). Momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 57, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30). MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bullish about 2 trading days ago (its momentum flipped positive). It made a new 20-day high about 2 trading days ago.
Trend
9
| Distance from the 200-day | it is trading 4.1% above its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a longer-term uptrend | +4.1% |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day moving average | its average price over the last 50 trading days — a short-term trend line — is $214.93 | $214.93 |
| 200-day moving average | its average price over the last 200 trading days — the long-term trend line — is $210.59 | $210.59 |
| Swing structure | its recent peaks and dips disagree — one of them is rising while the other is not, so there is no clean up or down pattern in the swings | mixed — one of the two is not confirming |
| Last swing turn | its last significant turn was a swing low 17 calendar days ago — the swings before that are what the structure reading is measured on | 17 sessions |
| Wave structure | its recent swings can be read as a completed three-part downward correction — a pullback in the A-B-C shape Elliott-wave chartists use; the labelling fails if price closes below 206.065. It is the only labelling that fits, though not with textbook proportions, and it describes the swings already printed, not what comes next. | possible three-wave downward correction, complete (atypical proportions) |
| Since the 50/200 cross | its 50-day average crossed above its 200-day average about 13 trading days ago — a "golden cross", a bullish long-term signal | 13 sessions |
| Above the 200-day after a dip | it recently dipped to its 200-day average (the long-term trend line) and has since climbed back above it — now about 4.1% above | +4.1% |
| Trend strength (14-day ADX) | there is no clear trend right now — the price is choppy (ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 16, below the 25 that marks a real trend) | 16.1 |
Momentum
3
| 14-day RSI | momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 57, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30) | 57.0 |
|---|---|---|
| Position in its 14-day range | it is trading in the upper half of its 14-day range ($203.18 to $223.80) — its "stochastic" reading is 78 out of 100, where 0 would mean closing exactly at the 14-session low and 100 exactly at the high. This measures WHERE the price sits inside its recent range, which is a different question from the RSI beside it: RSI is a momentum gauge, measuring how FAST the price has been moving, so a stock can drift quietly to the bottom of its range with an ordinary RSI, or fall sharply and still sit in the middle. It has been slipping within that range over the last few sessions. | 78.1 |
| Since the MACD crossed zero | MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bullish about 2 trading days ago (its momentum flipped positive) | 2 sessions |
Range
12
| 52-week high | its highest closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days) was $254.93 | $254.93 |
|---|---|---|
| From the 52-week high | it is 14.0% below its 52-week high (its highest price of the past year) | -14.0% |
| Above the 52-week low | it is 15.5% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year) | +15.5% |
| Below the 52-week high | it is 14.0% below its highest point of the past year | 14.0% |
| Since a 20-day breakout | it made a new 20-day high about 2 trading days ago | 2 sessions |
| Since a 55-day breakout | it made a new 55-day high about 30 trading days ago | 30 sessions |
| All-time high | its highest closing price on record is $292.99 (set on 2025-03-17) | $292.99 |
| Given back of the 52-week move | over the past year its closes ranged ($192.67 to $252.68), and it has recovered roughly a third of its fall from last year’s high — 44% of it. Chart-watchers call 61.8%-65% given back the "golden pocket" — for this company that is $229.76 to $231.68. It is watched widely enough that orders cluster there, which is the honest reason it matters; it is not a forecast. | 44.3% |
| From the all-time high | it is 25.2% below its all-time high | -25.2% |
| Nearest price level | it is trading 1.1% above a support level at $216.98 — a price it turned at 7 times since 2025-10-15, most recently on 2026-08-10. Since 2024-08-21 it has 5 such levels below the current price and 10 above. Levels like these describe where the price has reversed or paused before; they are not a forecast of where it will go. | -1.1% |
| All-time low | its lowest closing price on record is $3.75 (set on 2000-03-13) | $3.75 |
| Above the all-time low | it is 5747.5% above its all-time low | +5,747% |
Volatility
5
| Band width vs its own 6 months | day-to-day price swings are wider than usual versus its own recent 6-month history (wider than about 72% of it) | 72nd percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Typical daily range | in a typical session it travels about $5.39 between its high and its low — about 2.5% of its price. That is its "average true range" over the last 14 sessions, which also counts the distance from the previous close, so a day that opens well away from yesterday counts as the large move it was | $5.39 |
| Bollinger bands (20-day, ±2σ) | most of its recent trading has stayed between about $204.14 and $222.33 — the "Bollinger bands", a range drawn two standard deviations either side of its 20-day average price, which widens when the stock gets more volatile and narrows when it settles | $204.14 – $213.24 – $222.33 |
| Typical daily range (% of price) | its price moves about 2.5% in a typical session — calmer than most companies we cover. This is the average gap between a session's high and low over the last 14 sessions, counting overnight moves, expressed against the current price so it can be compared with companies trading at any price | 2.5% |
| Stretch from the 200-day average | it is trading 1.6 daily ranges above its 200-day average price (4.1% above it in plain percentage terms) — a way of asking how far it has stretched from its own average in units of how far it normally moves in a day, so a calm company and a jumpy one can be compared on the same scale | 1.6 daily ranges above its 200-day average |
Volume
1
| Volume vs its 30-day average | trading volume is about normal versus its 30-day average | 0.69× |
|---|
Analyst
2
| Change in the average price target | analysts have raised their average price target by 0.5% since the prior reading | +0.5% |
|---|---|---|
| Change in the consensus rating | the analyst consensus rating has improved toward "buy" since the prior reading | 0.04 toward buy |
Candlestick patterns
1
| Since a hammer | 3 sessions ago, after a stretch of decline, it sold off hard during the session and then closed back near its high — a "hammer", the long lower wick showing the drop was bought back before the close | 3 sessions ago |
|---|
Price gaps
3
| Gap at the open | it opened on 2026-08-21 0.4% above the previous session's close — an overnight gap, the part of the move that happened while the market was shut, and traded back through that level before the close | +0.4% |
|---|---|---|
| Open gap | it gapped 8.2% below the previous close 27 sessions ago and has not traded back through the level it left behind at 226.58 — an "unfilled gap", which describes a price range no trade has since crossed and is not a forecast that it will be crossed | -8.2% |
| Gap filled | a 3.0% gap up opened on 2026-06-11 has been "filled" 47 sessions ago — price traded back through the level the gap left behind, and it took 1 session to close | 47 sessions ago |
Price streaks
1
| Closing streak | it closed lower in its latest session, after a session that did not close lower — a single down day rather than a run | 1 session down |
|---|
Relative strength
4
| vs market, 1 month | over the past 1 month this stock beat the market by 4.2 percentage points (the stock gained 6.5% while the market gained 2.3%) | +4.2% |
|---|---|---|
| vs market, 3 months | over the past 3 months this stock beat the market by 7.1 percentage points (the stock gained 10.2% while the market gained 3.1%) | +7.1% |
| vs market, 6 months | over the past 6 months this stock lagged the market by 3.6 percentage points (the stock gained 7.4% while the market gained 11.1%) | -3.6% |
| vs market, 12 months | over the past 12 months this stock lagged the market by 32.4 percentage points (the stock lost 11.9% while the market gained 20.5%) | -32.4% |
Signal agreement
2
| Bullish technical signals | 5 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it are currently in a bullish state: a "golden cross" — its 50-day average is above its 200-day, trading above its 200-day average, a fresh 20-day high, MACD momentum is positive, trading above the Ichimoku cloud — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 5 of 9 |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish technical signals | 1 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it is currently in a bearish state: lagging the market over 6 months — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 1 of 9 |
Trend (Ichimoku cloud)
1
| Vs the Ichimoku cloud | trading 0.1% above the Ichimoku cloud — a band drawn from where its own highs and lows sat up to 2026-07-16 and projected forward over today's price, the side traders read as an established uptrend, with the band below acting as the level that would have to give way. The band itself is moderate, spanning 2.0% of the share price. | +0.1% |
|---|
Volume-weighted price
2
| Vs this year’s average price paid | the price is 6% above the average price paid so far this year, so the typical buyer over that stretch is showing a gain. That average is $207.14 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 156 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | +5.9% |
|---|---|---|
| Vs the average paid since it last reported | the price is 4% above the average price paid since it last reported on 2026-07-15 (its 8-K), so the typical buyer over that stretch is showing a gain. That average is $211.13 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 28 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | +3.9% |
Price levels it has turned at before
PGR last closed at $219.28 on 2026-08-21. Since 2024-08-21 it has turned at 5 prices below its last close and 10 above; the 3 nearest below and the 3 nearest above are listed, nearest first.
| Level | Side | Distance | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| $216.98 | Support | 1.1% below the last close | turned there 7 times · 2025-10-15 to 2026-08-10 |
| $221.95 | Resistance | 1.2% above the last close | turned there twice · 2025-11-20 to 2026-07-29 |
| $209.28 | Support | 4.6% below the last close | turned there twice · 2026-02-17 to 2026-04-21 |
| $230.33 | Resistance | 5.0% above the last close | turned there three times · 2025-01-13 to 2025-12-31 |
| $205.34 | Support | 6.4% below the last close | turned there three times · 2026-05-19 to 2026-08-04 |
| $238.46 | Resistance | 8.7% above the last close | turned there 9 times · 2024-11-05 to 2026-07-07 |
A level is a price this company reversed or paused at more than once — they describe past behaviour, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Wave structure
Its recent swings can be read as a three-part downward correction — the A-B-C shape chartists use for a pullback — now complete.
This labelling fails — stops being a possible reading at all — if it closes below $206.06.
It is the only labelling that fits these swings, though its proportions are not the textbook ones. It was chosen from 3 labellings that survived the rules, counting shorter readings of the same bars.
This reading has stood for 4 trading days, since 2026-08-18.
Read from daily closes as of 2026-08-21.
An Elliott-wave count describes the swings already printed and the level that would disprove it. It is not a forecast, a target, or advice.
Screens: Trading above the 200-day moving average · Recent golden cross (50-day crossed above 200-day) · Tested and reclaimed 200-day support · Broke out to a new 20-day high · MACD just crossed bullish (12/26/9) · trendless / choppy (low ADX) | Learn: moving average · golden cross · adx · rsi · macd · breakout
Based on daily closing prices as of 2026-08-21. Describes past price behavior only — informational, not financial advice.
Analyst consensus
- Consensus ratingHold (2.64 mean, 1=Strong Buy…5=Strong Sell) — 21 analysts
- Mean price target$230.83 range $198.00 – $309.00; median $230.00
Analyst estimates, as of 2026-08-23. These are third-party analyst opinions and price targets, aggregated — not a recommendation, prediction, or advice from stocks-llm. Informational only.
Analyst EPS estimate for PGR
- Consensus EPS estimate$3.93 next reporting period, as of 2026-08-23
Change over time is not available yet: it needs two readings of the same reporting period at least 30 days apart, and we have been recording these estimates since 2026-08-04. An estimate for a DIFFERENT quarter is not a revision, so a reading from before the last report is never compared with one after it.
The consensus estimate for the next reporting period, and how it has moved between readings of that SAME period. A change is measured only between readings estimating one period — when a company reports, the consensus moves to the next quarter and the two numbers are not comparable. Informational only, not a forecast and not advice.
Key risks (from latest filing)
["increased loss and loss adjustment expense severity","volatility in investment income due to unrealized gains/losses on fixed-maturity securities","intense competition in the insurance marketplace impacting premiums and growth"]
What changed in the latest 10-Q
AI-assisted comparison of PGR's 10-Q filed 2026-05-04 against the prior one filed 2025-11-03.
Risk Factors
- Added:
- 2026 Q1 share repurchase data: 2,334,998 shares purchased at average price $204.90 (filed 2026-05-04)
- Steven A. Broz Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement entered February 19, 2026, expires December 31, 2026, with 3,470 additional or specified shares (filed 2026-05-04)
- Susan Patricia Griffith Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement entered March 30, 2026, expires February 26, 2027, with 13,422 additional or specified shares (filed 2026-05-04)
- John Murphy Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement entered February 19, 2026, expires January 29, 2027, with 5,916 additional or specified shares (filed 2026-05-04)
- Andrew J. Quigg Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement entered January 29, 2026, expires January 29, 2027, with 531 additional or specified shares (filed 2026-05-04)
- Four new exhibits added: Discretionary Line of Credit Amendment (4.1), Restricted Stock Unit Award Agreements for 2026 (10.1, 10.2, 10.3) (filed 2026-05-04)
- Removed:
- 2025 Q3 share repurchase data: 163,786 shares purchased at average price $248.99 (filed 2025-11-03)
- Jonathan S. Bauer Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement entered August 21, 2025, expires July 31, 2026, with 450 additional or specified shares (filed 2025-11-03)
- John P. Sauerland Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement entered August 21, 2025, expires November 28, 2025, with 5,000 additional or specified shares (filed 2025-11-03)
- Reworded:
- Risk Factors reference changed from 'Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024' (2025-11-03) to 'Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025' (2026-05-04)
- Reporting period changed from 'third quarter 2025' to 'first quarter 2026' for share repurchase accomplishment timing (filed 2026-05-04)
- Insider Trading Arrangements introduction changed from describing specific Jonathan S. Bauer plan details to generalized description applicable to all executive officers' plans (filed 2026-05-04)
- Reference to proxy statement changed from '2025 Proxy Statement' (2025-11-03) to '2026 Proxy Statement' (2026-05-04)
- Notes:
- Comparison focuses on Item 1A Risk Factors, Item 2 Share Repurchases, Item 5 Insider Trading Arrangements, and exhibits; both filings state no material risk factor changes
- Executive officers listed in Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements differ between filings due to different reporting periods (Q3 2025 vs. Q1 2026)
AI-assisted comparison of two SEC filing sections. It describes wording and theme changes only, makes no materiality, legal, or investment judgement, and is not financial advice. Informational only — not financial advice.
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
0 open-market purchases and 10 open-market sales by insiders in the last 90 days.
- Last 30 days0 buys · 5 sells ($13M) — 5 selling insiders
- Last 90 days0 buys · 10 sells ($16M) — 7 selling insiders
- Last 180 days0 buys · 11 sells ($16M) — 8 selling insiders
Activity heuristic: net selling (a transparent product heuristic from the counts above, not a prediction or advice)
Most recent open-market transaction: 2026-07-28. As of 2026-08-24.
View full insider trading history → View SEC Form 3/4/5 filingsAsk about PGR's insider activity →
Only open-market purchases (SEC code P) and sales (code S) are counted here. Option exercises, vesting/awards, gifts, and shares withheld for taxes are excluded — they are compensation or mechanical, not open-market conviction. Sales may be planned and non-discretionary (e.g. a Rule 10b5-1 plan) and are not necessarily bearish; open-market buying is not a recommendation to buy. Informational only — not financial advice.
Congressional trading disclosures
U.S. House members publicly disclose their own, their spouse's, and dependent children's stock transactions under the STOCK Act. We hold 30 matched disclosures for PGR from U.S. House Clerk Periodic Transaction Report filings.
Congressional trading disclosures →Institutional ownership (13F)
6 institutional 13F filers reported holding PGR as of 2026-03-31 (quarter-end position, filed within 45 days).
- Distinct 13F filers 6
- Reported shares held 89,112,642
- Reported value $17,665,690,070
reported quarterly holdings change (2025-12-31 → 2026-03-31): 0 new, 5 increased, 1 decreased, 0 exited. Change counts cover only managers that filed 13F reports in BOTH quarters, derived between two quarter-end snapshots — not same-day trades; a single manager is never said to have "bought" or "sold".
Institutional holdings are quarter-end long positions reported on SEC Form 13F-HR, filed up to 45 days after the quarter ends — they are delayed, are not real-time trades, exclude short positions and most non-US securities, and are not investment advice. Any increase/decrease is a reported change between two quarterly snapshots, not a same-day purchase or sale. These are quarter-end snapshots from the 13F filings on SEC EDGAR, filed within 45 days — not real-time, and any change is a difference between two quarterly reports, not a same-day trade. Informational only — not financial advice.
Short interest (FINRA)
PGR had 8,075,469 shares of reported short interest as of the 2026-07-31 FINRA settlement date (delayed, bi-monthly; not real-time).
PGR had 1.39% of its shares outstanding sold short as of the 2026-07-31 FINRA settlement date (percent of FLOAT would be higher — float is not disclosed in the source). FINRA reported 2.72 days to cover at the same settlement.
- Reported short interest (shares) 8,075,469
- Short interest (% of shares outstanding) 1.39%
- Prior settlement (shares) 9,609,478
- Reported change -15.96%
- Days to cover (reported) 2.72
Reported to FINRA as of the 2026-07-31 settlement date. Short interest is reported to FINRA and published on a delayed, bi-monthly schedule (as of a settlement date, disseminated roughly eight business days later) — it is NOT real-time, does not cover every venue or all US trading, and is not a short-squeeze prediction or investment advice. Days-to-cover is the value FINRA reports; percent of float is not shown because the source file carries no share-count denominator — where a percent appears it is of shares OUTSTANDING, the larger base, and is therefore a floor on percent of float. Informational only — not financial advice.
Competitors & peers
- Allstate (ALL)
- GEICO (Berkshire Hathaway)
- State Farm
- Travelers (TRV)
- Chubb (CB)
- American Family Insurance
AI-enriched competitor set. Linked names are companies covered by stocks-llm; other named peers are shown for reference only.
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Frequently asked questions
What does Progressive Corporation (PGR) do?
The Progressive Corporation, through its insurance subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products. The company operates through two main segments, Personal Lines and Commercial Lines, and serves both individual consumers and business customers.
What sector is Progressive Corporation (PGR) in?
Progressive Corporation (PGR) is classified in the Financials sector. Its industry is Property & Casualty Insurance. It trades on NYSE.
Does PGR pay a dividend?
Yes — Progressive Corporation (PGR) pays a dividend, with an indicated yield of about 0.24% and 4-year non-decreasing per-share dividend streak (SEC EDGAR XBRL) (market data, as of 2026-08-24). Informational only — not financial advice.
Who are Progressive Corporation's (PGR) competitors?
Notable peers of Progressive Corporation (PGR) include Allstate, GEICO (Berkshire Hathaway), State Farm, Travelers and Chubb. This peer set is informational only — not financial advice.
Has there been recent Congressional stock trading in PGR?
Yes — we hold 30 matched STOCK Act disclosures for PGR from U.S. House Clerk Periodic Transaction Report filings. These are legally-required disclosures (often filed 30–45 days after the trade), may belong to a U.S. House member, their spouse, or a dependent child, and are not an indicator of company performance or investment advice.
Is Progressive Corporation (PGR) overbought or oversold right now?
Progressive Corporation (PGR) is currently neither overbought nor oversold — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 57, in the neutral middle (as of 2026-08-21). RSI describes recent price momentum, not a forecast — informational only, not financial advice.
Where does stocks-llm's data on PGR come from?
Fundamentals and prices come from market data, as of 2026-08-24; company filings and profile facts come from SEC EDGAR. All figures are delayed daily-close data shown with their as-of date — informational only, not financial advice.
Fundamentals: market data, as of 2026-08-24. Filings: SEC EDGAR. Prices are delayed daily-close data.
Last updated 2026-08-21.
Informational only — NOT financial advice. All figures are delayed daily-close data from SEC EDGAR & market data, shown with their as-of date.