Certara, Inc. (CERT)
Health Care · Life Sciences Software & Services · NASDAQ
Certara provides the biosimulation software and AI-driven expertise that helps pharmaceutical companies simulate drug behavior in the body to accelerate development and increase approval success.
What Certara, Inc. does
Certara is a global leader in biosimulation science, technology, and consulting services for the biopharmaceutical and biotech industries. Its Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) approach uses mathematical modeling, biological simulations, and AI-enabled analytics to help life sciences companies accelerate drug development, reduce costs, and improve the probability of regulatory approval. The company provides both proprietary software platforms and expert consulting services to support the entire drug research, development, and commercialization lifecycle.
Themes: drug development productivity, biosimulation, AI in healthcare, pharmaceutical R&D optimization, regulatory compliance software
Fundamentals
- Price$8.64 as of 2026-10-08 close
- Market cap$1.3B as of 2026-08-01 (share count; price 2026-10-08)
- 1-year return-33.5% 2025-10-08 close $13.00 → 2026-10-08 close $8.64
- P/En/a negative earnings
- Net margin-0.4% FY2025, SEC XBRL
- ROE-0.2% FY2025, SEC XBRL
- Debt / equity0.30 as of 2026-09-03
- Revenue growth (YoY)+0.7% as of 2026-09-03
- Revenue CAGR (3y)+7.7% SEC XBRL
- Beta0.95 as of 2026-09-03
- Last reported earnings2026-08-04 SEC EDGAR Form 8-K (Item 2.02)
How CERT compares in its sector
- net profit marginmiddle range 430 covered Health Care peers, as of 2026-09-03
- operating marginmiddle range 417 covered Health Care peers, as of 2026-09-03
- return on equitymiddle range 510 covered Health Care peers, as of 2026-09-03
- 3-year revenue CAGRmiddle range 402 covered Health Care peers
- free cash flow (absolute dollars, latest fiscal year)middle range 494 covered Health Care peers, as of FY2025
Position among covered Health Care companies that report each metric (minimum 5 peers). A relative position within our covered catalog — not a valuation, quality, or investment judgment. A higher percentile is simply a higher value (for P/E, more expensive on earnings — never "better"). Informational only.
How Certara, Inc. looks technically
Certara, Inc. (CERT) is trading 19.3% above its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a longer-term uptrend. Its 50-day average crossed above its 200-day average about 29 trading days ago — a "golden cross", a bullish long-term signal. A strong uptrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 31, with buyers in control. Momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 49, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30). MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bearish about 1 trading day ago (its momentum flipped negative). It made a new 20-day high about 4 trading days ago. It is 37.8% below its highest point of the past year.
Trend
8
| Distance from the 200-day | it is trading 19.3% above its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a longer-term uptrend | +19.3% |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day moving average | its average price over the last 50 trading days — a short-term trend line — is $8.38 | $8.38 |
| 200-day moving average | its average price over the last 200 trading days — the long-term trend line — is $7.25 | $7.25 |
| Swing structure | each recent peak has been higher than the one before it and each dip has been shallower — the pattern chart-watchers call an uptrend, which describes where price has already been and not where it goes next | higher highs and higher lows |
| Last swing turn | its last significant turn was a swing low 28 calendar days ago — the swings before that are what the structure reading is measured on | 28 sessions |
| Wave structure | its recent swings can be read as a five-part upward sequence — what Elliott-wave chartists call an impulse — now in leg 3 of five; the labelling fails if price closes below 7.31. It is one of several labellings that fit, and it describes the swings already printed, not what comes next. The same swings also read as a three-part correction in leg C. | possible upward five-wave sequence, in wave 3 (one of several readings) |
| Since the 50/200 cross | its 50-day average crossed above its 200-day average about 29 trading days ago — a "golden cross", a bullish long-term signal | 29 sessions |
| Trend strength (14-day ADX) | a strong uptrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 31, with buyers in control | 30.6 |
Momentum
3
| 14-day RSI | momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 49, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30) | 48.6 |
|---|---|---|
| Position in its 14-day range | it is trading near the bottom of its 14-day range ($8.43 to $10.19) — its "stochastic" reading is 12 out of 100, where 0 would mean closing exactly at the 14-session low and 100 exactly at the high. This measures WHERE the price sits inside its recent range, which is a different question from the RSI beside it: RSI is a momentum gauge, measuring how FAST the price has been moving, so a stock can drift quietly to the bottom of its range with an ordinary RSI, or fall sharply and still sit in the middle. It has been slipping within that range over the last few sessions. | 12.2 |
| Since the MACD crossed zero | MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bearish about 1 trading day ago (its momentum flipped negative) | 1 session |
Range
12
| 52-week high | its highest closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days) was $13.88 | $13.88 |
|---|---|---|
| From the 52-week high | it is 37.8% below its 52-week high (its highest price of the past year) | -37.8% |
| Above the 52-week low | it is 94.2% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year) | +94.2% |
| Below the 52-week high | it is 37.8% below its highest point of the past year | 37.8% |
| Since a 20-day breakout | it made a new 20-day high about 4 trading days ago | 4 sessions |
| Since a 55-day breakout | it made a new 55-day high about 4 trading days ago | 4 sessions |
| All-time high | its highest closing price on record is $45.47 (set on 2021-11-04) | $45.47 |
| Given back of the 52-week move | over the past year its closes ranged ($4.48 to $13.45), and it has recovered around half of its fall from last year’s high — 46% of it. Chart-watchers call 61.8%-65% given back the "golden pocket" — for this company that is $10.02 to $10.31. It is watched widely enough that orders cluster there, which is the honest reason it matters; it is not a forecast. | 46.4% |
| From the all-time high | it is 81.0% below its all-time high | -81.0% |
| Nearest price level | it is sitting right on a resistance level at $8.64 — a price it turned at twice since 2025-04-09, most recently on 2026-01-02. Since 2024-10-08 it has 4 such levels below the current price and 8 above. Levels like these describe where the price has reversed or paused before; they are not a forecast of where it will go. | +0.1% |
| All-time low | its lowest closing price on record is $4.45 (set on 2026-05-15) | $4.45 |
| Above the all-time low | it is 94.2% above its all-time low | +94.2% |
Volatility
5
| Band width vs its own 6 months | day-to-day price swings are about average versus its own recent 6-month history | 49th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Typical daily range | in a typical session it travels about $0.4321 between its high and its low — about 5.0% of its price. That is its "average true range" over the last 14 sessions, which also counts the distance from the previous close, so a day that opens well away from yesterday counts as the large move it was | $0.4321 |
| Bollinger bands (20-day, ±2σ) | most of its recent trading has stayed between about $7.70 and $9.93 — the "Bollinger bands", a range drawn two standard deviations either side of its 20-day average price, which widens when the stock gets more volatile and narrows when it settles | $7.70 – $8.82 – $9.93 |
| Typical daily range (% of price) | its price moves about 5.0% in a typical session — about typical for the companies we cover. This is the average gap between a session's high and low over the last 14 sessions, counting overnight moves, expressed against the current price so it can be compared with companies trading at any price | 5.0% |
| Stretch from the 200-day average | it is trading 3.2 daily ranges above its 200-day average price (19.3% above it in plain percentage terms) — a way of asking how far it has stretched from its own average in units of how far it normally moves in a day, so a calm company and a jumpy one can be compared on the same scale | 3.2 daily ranges above its 200-day average |
Volume
1
| Volume vs its 30-day average | trading volume is about normal versus its 30-day average | 1.60× |
|---|
Analyst
2
| Change in the average price target | analysts have raised their average price target by 3.5% since the prior reading | +3.5% |
|---|---|---|
| Change in the consensus rating | not available for this company yet | n/a |
Candlestick patterns
2
| Since a bullish engulfing | 3 sessions ago it opened below the previous session's close and finished above that session's open — a "bullish engulfing" pair, where one up day more than undid the down day before it | 3 sessions ago |
|---|---|---|
| Since a bearish engulfing | 2 sessions ago it opened above the previous session's close and finished below that session's open — a "bearish engulfing" pair, where one down day more than undid the up day before it | 2 sessions ago |
Price gaps
2
| Gap at the open | it opened on 2026-10-08 0.7% below the previous session's close — an overnight gap, the part of the move that happened while the market was shut, and had not traded back through that level by the close | -0.7% |
|---|---|---|
| Gap filled | a 22.6% gap down opened on 2026-08-04 has been "filled" 43 sessions ago — price traded back through the level the gap left behind, and it took 3 sessions to close | 43 sessions ago |
Price streaks
1
| Closing streak | it has closed lower 3 sessions in a row, a -14.2% move over the run — an unbroken run of down days, which describes what has already happened and says nothing about the next session | 3 sessions down |
|---|
Relative strength
4
| vs market, 1 month | over the past 1 month this stock beat the market by 10.6 percentage points (the stock gained 11.6% while the market gained 1.0%) | +10.6% |
|---|---|---|
| vs market, 3 months | over the past 3 months this stock beat the market by 28.3 percentage points (the stock gained 32.1% while the market gained 3.8%) | +28.3% |
| vs market, 6 months | over the past 6 months this stock beat the market by 40.8 percentage points (the stock gained 58.2% while the market gained 17.5%) | +40.8% |
| vs market, 12 months | over the past 12 months this stock lagged the market by 48.5 percentage points (the stock lost 33.5% while the market gained 15.0%) | -48.5% |
Signal agreement
2
| Bullish technical signals | 6 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it are currently in a bullish state: a "golden cross" — its 50-day average is above its 200-day, trading above its 200-day average, a strong uptrend, with buyers in control, outperforming the market over 6 months, near the bottom of its 14-day range (oversold), trading above the Ichimoku cloud — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 6 of 9 |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish technical signals | 1 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it is currently in a bearish state: MACD momentum is negative — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 1 of 9 |
Trend (Ichimoku cloud)
1
| Vs the Ichimoku cloud | trading 8.1% above the Ichimoku cloud — a band drawn from where its own highs and lows sat up to 2026-09-01 and projected forward over today's price, the side traders read as an established uptrend, with the band below acting as the level that would have to give way. The band itself is thick, spanning 10.4% of the share price, which is taken to mean a barrier that has held for a while and takes effort to cross. | +8.1% |
|---|
Volume-weighted price
2
| Vs this year’s average price paid | the price is 25% above the average price paid so far this year, so the typical buyer over that stretch is showing a gain. That average is $6.89 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 190 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | +25.4% |
|---|---|---|
| Vs the average paid since it last reported | the price is 3% above the average price paid since it last reported on 2026-08-04 (its 10-Q), so the typical buyer over that stretch is showing a gain. That average is $8.41 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 47 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | +2.7% |
Price levels it has turned at before
CERT last closed at $8.64 on 2026-10-08. Since 2024-10-08 it has turned at 4 prices below its last close and 8 above; the 3 nearest below and the 3 nearest above are listed, nearest first.
| Level | Side | Distance | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| $8.64 | Resistance | 0.1% above the last close | turned there twice · 2025-04-09 to 2026-01-02 |
| $8.40 | Support | 2.7% below the last close | turned there twice · 2025-12-15 to 2026-08-03 |
| $9.36 | Resistance | 8.3% above the last close | turned there three times · 2024-11-21 to 2025-12-22 |
| $7.37 | Support | 14.8% below the last close | turned there three times · 2026-07-07 to 2026-09-10 |
| $10.00 | Resistance | 15.7% above the last close | turned there four times · 2024-10-24 to 2026-01-08 |
| $6.46 | Support | 25.2% below the last close | turned there three times · 2026-04-22 to 2026-07-09 |
A level is a price this company reversed or paused at more than once — they describe past behaviour, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Wave structure
Its recent swings can be read as a five-part upward sequence — what Elliott-wave chartists call an impulse — now in leg 3 of five.
This labelling fails — stops being a possible reading at all — if it closes below $7.31.
This is one of several labellings that fit the same swings, so treat it as a reading rather than the reading. It was chosen from 2 labellings that survived the rules, counting shorter readings of the same bars.
On past moves of this shape the leg has usually ended somewhere between $9.86 and $11.44 — that is where it has tended to end if the count holds, not a forecast of where the price goes.
Alternate reading: The same swings also read as a three-part correction in leg C, which fails on a close below $7.31.
This reading has stood for 16 trading days, since 2026-09-17.
Read from daily closes as of 2026-10-08.
An Elliott-wave count describes the swings already printed and the level that would disprove it. It is not a forecast, a target, or advice.
Screens: Trading above the 200-day moving average · Recent golden cross (50-day crossed above 200-day) · Pulled back from the 12-month high · MACD just crossed bearish (12/26/9) · in a strong, established uptrend (ADX) · Analyst price target recently RAISED | Learn: moving average · golden cross · adx · rsi · macd · breakout · fifty two week high low
Based on daily closing prices as of 2026-10-08. Describes past price behavior only — informational, not financial advice.
Analyst consensus
- Consensus ratingBuy (2.38 mean, 1=Strong Buy…5=Strong Sell) — 11 analysts
- Mean price target$8.62 range $7.00 – $10.00; median $9.00
Analyst estimates, as of 2026-10-07. These are third-party analyst opinions and price targets, aggregated — not a recommendation, prediction, or advice from stocks-llm. Informational only.
Analyst EPS estimate for CERT
- Consensus EPS estimate$0.08904 next reporting period, as of 2026-10-07
- Estimate change, 30 days+$0.00048 from $0.08856, on 2026-09-02, 35-day window
- Readings revised upward13% of 8 comparable readings
The consensus estimate for the next reporting period, and how it has moved between readings of that SAME period. A change is measured only between readings estimating one period — when a company reports, the consensus moves to the next quarter and the two numbers are not comparable. Informational only, not a forecast and not advice.
Key risks (from latest filing)
["Dependence on the R&D spending and outsourcing trends of the biopharmaceutical industry.","Requirement to maintain regulatory compliance for software and scientific outputs.","Risks associated with integrating emerging AI technologies while maintaining model explainability and scientific rigor."]
What changed in the latest 10-Q
AI-assisted comparison of CERT's 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 against the prior one filed 2026-05-11.
Management's Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
- Removed:
- In the older filing (filed 2026-05-11), a paragraph reads: 'The scientific principles underlying our work must be transparent and fully explainable during the regulatory process, so we have developed expertise in incorporating data, references and results into regulatory documents. Our software and regulatory scientific services streamline the creation of regulatory filings and speed regulatory data flow to maximize the chances of successful commercialization.' This paragraph is absent from the newer filing (filed 2026-08-04).
- In the older filing (filed 2026-05-11), the sentence on Native AI reads: 'Native AI and machine learning technologies are being incorporated across our technology and consulting services portfolios, providing opportunities to expand the number of data sources utilized, better predict outcomes, and streamline reporting. For example, we are using machine learning to automate and speed the process of biosimulation, and we have created generative AI applications to aid in drafting regulatory documents from scientific analyses and clinical data.' In the newer filing (filed 2026-08-04), the clause 'and we have created generative AI applications to aid in drafting regulatory documents from scientific analyses and clinical data' has been removed.
- Notes:
- The newer filing text is truncated at 'excluding revenue from acquisitions occurred within' in the Key Factors section, so changes after that point cannot be assessed.
- The older filing text is truncated at 'Bookings vary from period to period depending on' in the Key Factors section, so changes after that point cannot be assessed.
Risk Factors
- Added:
- In the newer filing (2026-08-04), Item 5 Other Information Trading Plans now states that on June 4, 2026, Leif Pedersen, President, Chief Commercial Officer, adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan providing for potential sale of up to 36,066 shares from September 2, 2026 through September 4, 2026.
- In the newer filing (2026-08-04), the exhibit index adds Exhibit 2.2 (Purchase Agreement dated April 21, 2026, by and among Certara, Inc., Veristat, LLC and certain of its affiliates).
- In the newer filing (2026-08-04), the exhibit index adds Exhibits 10.1 through 10.7 (various 2025 and 2026 PSU, RSU, Make Whole RSU, and Executive Standard RSU and PSU grants).
- Removed:
- In the older filing (2026-05-11), Item 5 Other Information Trading Plans stated that during the three months ended March 31, 2026, none of the directors or officers adopted or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan; this statement does not appear in the newer filing.
- In the older filing (2026-05-11), the signature page listed John E. Gallagher III as Chief Financial Officer; the newer filing (2026-08-04) lists Faiz Mohammed as Interim Chief Financial Officer.
- Reworded:
- In the newer filing (2026-08-04), the stock repurchase table now covers the three months ended June 30, 2026, whereas the older filing (2026-05-11) covered the three months ended March 31, 2026.
- In the newer filing (2026-08-04), the share repurchase table and related footnote state that the Company repurchased 3,194,975 shares at an average price of $5.46 per share during the three months ended June 30, 2026; the older filing (2026-05-11) stated 5,814,484 shares at an average price of $6.86 per share during the three months ended March 31, 2026.
- In the newer filing (2026-08-04), footnote (c) was added describing shares purchased from employees for tax payments upon vesting of RSUs, including that employees tendered 585,391 shares for the three months ended June 30, 2026; the older filing (2026-05-11) did not include corresponding footnote (c).
- In the newer filing (2026-08-04), the signature page is dated August 4, 2026; the older filing (2026-05-11) signature page is dated May 11, 2026.
- Notes:
- The provided texts include sections beyond the Risk Factors item (Items 2-6, exhibits, and signatures), so the comparison reflects those included sections, not solely the Risk Factors disclosure.
- The Risk Factors subsection itself (Item 1A) appears identical in both filings except for surrounding content included in the provided extracts.
AI-assisted comparison of two SEC filing sections. It describes wording and theme changes only, makes no materiality, legal, or investment judgement, and is not financial advice. Informational only — not financial advice.
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
No open-market insider purchases or sales are on record for CERT — recent Form 4 activity was compensation-related (awards, option exercises, or tax withholding), not open-market buying or selling.
View full insider trading history → View SEC Form 3/4/5 filingsOnly open-market purchases (SEC code P) and sales (code S) are counted here. Option exercises, vesting/awards, gifts, and shares withheld for taxes are excluded — they are compensation or mechanical, not open-market conviction. Sales may be planned and non-discretionary (e.g. a Rule 10b5-1 plan) and are not necessarily bearish; open-market buying is not a recommendation to buy. Informational only — not financial advice.
Institutional ownership (13F)
5 institutional 13F filers reported holding CERT as of 2026-06-30 (quarter-end position, filed within 45 days).
- Distinct 13F filers 5
- Reported shares held 26,544,274
- Reported value $173,864,998
reported quarterly holdings change (2026-03-31 → 2026-06-30): 0 new, 4 increased, 1 decreased, 0 exited. Change counts cover only managers that filed 13F reports in BOTH quarters, derived between two quarter-end snapshots — not same-day trades; a single manager is never said to have "bought" or "sold".
Institutional holdings are quarter-end long positions reported on SEC Form 13F-HR, filed up to 45 days after the quarter ends — they are delayed, are not real-time trades, exclude short positions and most non-US securities, and are not investment advice. Any increase/decrease is a reported change between two quarterly snapshots, not a same-day purchase or sale. These are quarter-end snapshots from the 13F filings on SEC EDGAR, filed within 45 days — not real-time, and any change is a difference between two quarterly reports, not a same-day trade. Informational only — not financial advice.
Ask about CERT's institutional holders → See what each manager we track holds →
Short interest (FINRA)
CERT had 28,814,125 shares of reported short interest as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (delayed, bi-monthly; not real-time).
CERT had 18.9% of its shares outstanding sold short as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (percent of FLOAT would be higher — float is not disclosed in the source). FINRA reported 15.03 days to cover at the same settlement.
- Reported short interest (shares) 28,814,125
- Short interest (% of shares outstanding) 18.9%
- Prior settlement (shares) 28,972,317
- Reported change -0.55%
- Days to cover (reported) 15.03
Reported to FINRA as of the 2026-09-15 settlement date. Short interest is reported to FINRA and published on a delayed, bi-monthly schedule (as of a settlement date, disseminated roughly eight business days later) — it is NOT real-time, does not cover every venue or all US trading, and is not a short-squeeze prediction or investment advice. Days-to-cover is the value FINRA reports; percent of float is not shown because the source file carries no share-count denominator — where a percent appears it is of shares OUTSTANDING, the larger base, and is therefore a floor on percent of float. Informational only — not financial advice.
Competitors & peers
- IQVIA (IQV)
- Parexel International
- ICON (ICLR)
- Syneos Health
- Simulations Plus (SLP)
AI-enriched competitor set. Linked names are companies covered by stocks-llm; other named peers are shown for reference only.
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Frequently asked questions
What does Certara, Inc. (CERT) do?
Certara is a global leader in biosimulation science, technology, and consulting services for the biopharmaceutical and biotech industries. Its Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) approach uses mathematical modeling, biological simulations, and AI-enabled analytics to help life sciences companies accelerate drug development, reduce costs, and improve the probability of regulatory approval.
What sector is Certara, Inc. (CERT) in?
Certara, Inc. (CERT) is classified in the Health Care sector. Its industry is Life Sciences Software & Services. It trades on NASDAQ.
Who are Certara, Inc.'s (CERT) competitors?
Notable peers of Certara, Inc. (CERT) include IQVIA, Parexel International, ICON, Syneos Health and Simulations Plus. This peer set is informational only — not financial advice.
Is Certara, Inc. (CERT) overbought or oversold right now?
Certara, Inc. (CERT) is currently neither overbought nor oversold — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 49, in the neutral middle (as of 2026-10-08). RSI describes recent price momentum, not a forecast — informational only, not financial advice.
Where does stocks-llm's data on CERT come from?
Fundamentals come from SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-03 for the rest; prices are market data, as of 2026-09-03; company filings and profile facts come from SEC EDGAR. All figures are delayed daily-close data shown with their as-of date — informational only, not financial advice.
Fundamentals: SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-03 for the rest. Filings: SEC EDGAR. Prices are delayed daily-close data.
Last updated 2026-10-08.
Informational only — NOT financial advice. All figures are delayed daily-close data from SEC EDGAR & market data, shown with their as-of date.