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FOSSIL GROUP INC (FOSL)

Consumer Discretionary · Fashion accessories and watches · NASDAQ

A global fashion accessory company navigating a corporate turnaround with a brand-led, consumer-focused strategy centered on watches, jewelry, and leather goods.

What FOSSIL GROUP INC does

Fossil Group is a global design, marketing, and distribution company specializing in consumer fashion accessories, including traditional watches, jewelry, handbags, and small leather goods. The company manages a diverse portfolio of owned and licensed global brands distributed through wholesale channels, third-party distributors, and its own retail stores and e-commerce websites.

Recent developments

The company raised its full-year 2026 financial outlook following a second-quarter performance that beat expectations, citing strength in core brands and progress under its turnaround plan. It expects an improved path to profitability and positive free cash flow, including a projected return to top-line growth in the fourth quarter.

From FOSSIL GROUP INC's filing of 2026-08-13.

Themes: turnaround plan, brand-led operating model, supply chain mitigation, e-commerce and digital transformation

Fundamentals

  • Price$7.00 as of 2026-10-08 close
  • Market cap$414M as of 2026-08-05 (share count; price 2026-10-08)
  • 1-year return+184.6% 2025-10-08 close $2.46 → 2026-10-08 close $7.00
  • P/En/a negative earnings
  • Net margin-7.7% FY2026, SEC XBRL
  • Gross margin+56.1% FY2026, SEC XBRL
  • ROE-89.7% FY2026, SEC XBRL
  • Debt / equity1.97 as of 2026-09-03
  • Revenue growth (YoY)-11.3% as of 2026-09-03
  • Revenue CAGR (3y)-12.1% SEC XBRL
  • Beta1.64 as of 2026-09-03
  • Last reported earnings2026-08-12 SEC EDGAR Form 8-K (Item 2.02)

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How FOSL compares in its sector

  • net profit marginbottom 25% 314 covered Consumer Discretionary peers, as of 2026-09-03
  • operating marginbottom 25% 281 covered Consumer Discretionary peers, as of 2026-09-03
  • gross margintop 25% 191 covered Consumer Discretionary peers, as of 2026-09-03
  • return on equitybottom 10% 293 covered Consumer Discretionary peers, as of 2026-09-03
  • 3-year revenue CAGRbottom 10% 326 covered Consumer Discretionary peers
  • free cash flow (absolute dollars, latest fiscal year)bottom 10% 311 covered Consumer Discretionary peers, as of FY2026

Position among covered Consumer Discretionary companies that report each metric (minimum 5 peers). A relative position within our covered catalog — not a valuation, quality, or investment judgment. A higher percentile is simply a higher value (for P/E, more expensive on earnings — never "better"). Informational only.

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How FOSSIL GROUP INC looks technically

FOSSIL GROUP INC (FOSL) is trading 53.0% above its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a longer-term uptrend. Its 50-day average crossed above its 200-day average about 311 trading days ago — a "golden cross", a bullish long-term signal. A strong uptrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 31, with buyers in control. Momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 67, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30). It made a new 20-day high about 4 trading days ago. It is 4.5% below its 52-week high (its highest price of the past year).

Trend

7
Distance from the 200-dayit is trading 53.0% above its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a longer-term uptrend+53.0%
50-day moving averageits average price over the last 50 trading days — a short-term trend line — is $5.66$5.66
200-day moving averageits average price over the last 200 trading days — the long-term trend line — is $4.58$4.58
Swing structureits recent peaks and dips disagree — one of them is rising while the other is not, so there is no clean up or down pattern in the swingsmixed — one of the two is not confirming
Last swing turnits last significant turn was a swing high 16 calendar days ago — the swings before that are what the structure reading is measured on16 sessions
Since the 50/200 crossits 50-day average crossed above its 200-day average about 311 trading days ago — a "golden cross", a bullish long-term signal311 sessions
Trend strength (14-day ADX)a strong uptrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 31, with buyers in control31.2

Momentum

3
14-day RSImomentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 67, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30)66.8
Position in its 14-day rangeit is trading near the top of its 14-day range ($5.50 to $7.33) — its "stochastic" reading is 82 out of 100, where 0 would mean closing exactly at the 14-session low and 100 exactly at the high. This measures WHERE the price sits inside its recent range, which is a different question from the RSI beside it: RSI is a momentum gauge, measuring how FAST the price has been moving, so a stock can drift quietly to the bottom of its range with an ordinary RSI, or fall sharply and still sit in the middle. It has been slipping within that range over the last few sessions.82.0
Since the MACD crossed zeroMACD, a trend-momentum gauge, is in positive territory (momentum leaning bullish)16 sessions

Range

12
52-week highits highest closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days) was $7.33$7.33
From the 52-week highit is 4.5% below its 52-week high (its highest price of the past year)-4.5%
Above the 52-week lowit is 311.8% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year)+311.8%
Below the 52-week highit is 4.5% below its highest point of the past year4.5%
Since a 20-day breakoutit made a new 20-day high about 4 trading days ago4 sessions
Since a 55-day breakoutit made a new 55-day high about 4 trading days ago4 sessions
All-time highits highest closing price on record is $139.20 (set on 2012-04-05)$139.20
Given back of the 52-week moveover the past year its closes ranged ($1.79 to $7.22), and it has given back only a small part of its rise from last year’s low — 4% of it. Chart-watchers call 61.8%-65% given back the "golden pocket" — for this company that is $3.69 to $3.86. It is watched widely enough that orders cluster there, which is the honest reason it matters; it is not a forecast.4.0%
From the all-time highit is 95.0% below its all-time high-95.0%
Nearest price levelit is trading 28.6% above a support level at $5.00 — a price it turned at twice since 2026-02-25, most recently on 2026-03-12. Since 2024-10-08 it has 14 such levels below the current price and 0 above. Levels like these describe where the price has reversed or paused before; they are not a forecast of where it will go.-28.6%
All-time lowits lowest closing price on record is $0.75 (set on 2024-04-30)$0.75
Above the all-time lowit is 833.3% above its all-time low+833.3%

Volatility

5
Band width vs its own 6 monthsday-to-day price swings are unusually wide versus its own recent history (wider than about 85% of the past ~6 months)85th percentile
Typical daily rangein a typical session it travels about $0.3825 between its high and its low — about 5.5% of its price. That is its "average true range" over the last 14 sessions, which also counts the distance from the previous close, so a day that opens well away from yesterday counts as the large move it was$0.3825
Bollinger bands (20-day, ±2σ)most of its recent trading has stayed between about $4.64 and $7.59 — the "Bollinger bands", a range drawn two standard deviations either side of its 20-day average price, which widens when the stock gets more volatile and narrows when it settles$4.64 – $6.12 – $7.59
Typical daily range (% of price)its price moves about 5.5% in a typical session — about typical for the companies we cover. This is the average gap between a session's high and low over the last 14 sessions, counting overnight moves, expressed against the current price so it can be compared with companies trading at any price5.5%
Stretch from the 200-day averageit is trading 6.3 daily ranges above its 200-day average price (53.0% above it in plain percentage terms) — a way of asking how far it has stretched from its own average in units of how far it normally moves in a day, so a calm company and a jumpy one can be compared on the same scale6.3 daily ranges above its 200-day average

Volume

1
Volume vs its 30-day averagetrading volume is about normal versus its 30-day average0.73×

Analyst

2
Change in the average price targetanalysts' average price target is unchanged from the prior reading0.0%
Change in the consensus ratingthe analyst consensus rating is unchanged since the prior readingunchanged

Candlestick patterns

1
Since a dojitoday it opened and closed at almost the same price after trading through a wider range — a "doji", the classic picture of buyers and sellers finishing the session leveltoday

Price gaps

3
Gap at the openit opened on 2026-10-08 1.0% below the previous session's close — an overnight gap, the part of the move that happened while the market was shut, and traded back through that level before the close-1.0%
Open gapit gapped 3.8% above the previous close 9 sessions ago and has not traded back through the level it left behind at 5.85 — an "unfilled gap", which describes a price range no trade has since crossed and is not a forecast that it will be crossed+3.8%
Gap filleda 2.2% gap up opened on 2026-10-02 has been "filled" 4 sessions ago — price traded back through the level the gap left behind, and it closed again during the very session that opened it4 sessions ago

Price streaks

1
Closing streakit closed lower in its latest session, after a session that did not close lower — a single down day rather than a run1 session down

Relative strength

4
vs market, 1 monthover the past 1 month this stock beat the market by 35.9 percentage points (the stock gained 37.0% while the market gained 1.0%)+36.0%
vs market, 3 monthsover the past 3 months this stock beat the market by 66.9 percentage points (the stock gained 70.7% while the market gained 3.8%)+66.9%
vs market, 6 monthsover the past 6 months this stock beat the market by 26.9 percentage points (the stock gained 44.3% while the market gained 17.5%)+26.9%
vs market, 12 monthsover the past 12 months this stock beat the market by 169.6 percentage points (the stock gained 184.6% while the market gained 15.0%)+169.6%

Signal agreement

2
Bullish technical signals6 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it are currently in a bullish state: a "golden cross" — its 50-day average is above its 200-day, trading above its 200-day average, MACD momentum is positive, a strong uptrend, with buyers in control, outperforming the market over 6 months, trading above the Ichimoku cloud — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast6 of 9
Bearish technical signals1 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it is currently in a bearish state: near the top of its 14-day range (overbought) — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast1 of 9

Trend (Ichimoku cloud)

1
Vs the Ichimoku cloudtrading 32% above the Ichimoku cloud — a band drawn from where its own highs and lows sat up to 2026-09-01 and projected forward over today's price, the side traders read as an established uptrend, with the band below acting as the level that would have to give way. The band itself is moderate, spanning 3.8% of the share price.+31.5%

Volume-weighted price

2
Vs this year’s average price paidthe price is 48% above the average price paid so far this year, so the typical buyer over that stretch is showing a gain. That average is $4.71 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 190 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP.+48.5%
Vs the average paid since it last reportedthe price is 22% above the average price paid since it last reported on 2026-08-12 (its 8-K), so the typical buyer over that stretch is showing a gain. That average is $5.75 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 41 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP.+21.8%

Price levels it has turned at before

FOSL last closed at $7.00 on 2026-10-08. Since 2024-10-08 it has turned at 14 prices below its last close and 0 above; the 3 nearest below are listed, nearest first.

LevelSideDistanceEvidence
$5.00Support28.6% below the last closeturned there twice · 2026-02-25 to 2026-03-12
$4.54Support35.2% below the last closeturned there three times · 2026-01-27 to 2026-06-17
$4.41Support37.0% below the last closeturned there twice · 2025-10-15 to 2026-06-26

A level is a price this company reversed or paused at more than once — they describe past behaviour, not a forecast of where the price will go.

Wave structure

No Elliott-wave labelling currently fits its swings: the recent highs and lows do not satisfy the three rules a five-wave count has to obey, so there is no count to show rather than a count we are unsure about.

Read from daily closes as of 2026-10-08.

An Elliott-wave count describes the swings already printed and the level that would disprove it. It is not a forecast, a target, or advice.

Based on daily closing prices as of 2026-10-08. Describes past price behavior only — informational, not financial advice.

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Analyst consensus

  • Consensus ratingStrong Buy (1.25 mean, 1=Strong Buy…5=Strong Sell) — 4 analysts
  • Mean price target$9.25 range $7.00 – $12.00; median $9.00

Analyst estimates, as of 2026-10-09. These are third-party analyst opinions and price targets, aggregated — not a recommendation, prediction, or advice from stocks-llm. Informational only.

Analyst EPS estimate for FOSL

  • Consensus EPS estimate-$0.08 next reporting period, as of 2026-10-09
  • Estimate change, 30 days+$0.14 from -$0.22, on 2026-09-04, 35-day window
  • Readings revised upward14% of 7 comparable readings

The consensus estimate for the next reporting period, and how it has moved between readings of that SAME period. A change is measured only between readings estimating one period — when a company reports, the consensus moves to the next quarter and the two numbers are not comparable. Informational only, not a forecast and not advice.

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Key risks (from latest filing)

["High sensitivity to changes in trade policy, tariffs on imports from China, and supply chain volatility.","Declining consumer demand for discretionary goods and the need for ongoing store rationalization.","Exposure to cybersecurity threats, including data breaches and potential liability for mishandling sensitive customer information."]

See FOSL's biggest risks from its latest 10-Q →

What changed in the latest 10-Q

AI-assisted comparison of FOSL's 10-Q filed 2026-08-13 against the prior one filed 2026-05-14.

Management's Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)

  • Added:
    • Newer filing (2026-08-13) discusses the thirteen week periods ended July 4, 2026 (Second Quarter) and July 5, 2025 (Prior Year Quarter), and the twenty-six week period ended July 4, 2026 (Year To Date Period) and the twenty-seven week period ended July 5, 2025 (Prior Year YTD Period).
    • Newer filing (2026-08-13) states that during the Year To Date Period, the Company received refund claims under Phase I of the IEEPA refund process in the amount of $4.9 million and recorded a receivable for an additional $1.0 million.
    • Newer filing (2026-08-13) states that of the $5.9 million in total claims recorded, $4.9 million and $1.0 million were recorded as reductions of cost of sales and SG&A, respectively, during the Year To Date Period.
    • Newer filing (2026-08-13) states that $3.6 million in total claims recorded in the Year To Date period relate to tariffs incurred in the prior year and have been adjusted out of Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Operating Income (Loss), Constant Currency Adjusted Operating Income (Loss), Adjusted Net Income (Loss) and Adjusted Earnings (Loss) per Share.
    • Newer filing (2026-08-13) changes the Middle East conflicts description to state that military actions in the Middle East 'began with U.S. and Israeli hostilities with Iran and subsequent retaliatory actions by Iran, and has subsequently expanded to include neighboring countries.'
  • Removed:
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) stated that the Company submitted claims that were accepted under Phase I of the IEEPA refund process in the amount of $5.9 million and a corresponding refund receivable was recorded within prepaid expenses and other current assets in the Company's balance sheets as of April 4, 2026.
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) stated that of the $5.9 million, $4.0 million, $0.9 million and $1.0 million were recorded as reductions of cost of sales, SG&A and inventories, respectively.
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) described the Middle East military actions as 'heightened tensions and recent military actions in the Middle East, such as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and subsequent retaliatory actions by Iran.'
  • Reworded:
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) stated mitigation strategies 'such as price increases and sourcing changes, among others'; newer filing (2026-08-13) omits the parenthetical examples and states only 'mitigation strategies'.
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) stated 'The CBP is proceeding with a phased rollout of refunds'; newer filing (2026-08-13) states 'CBP is proceeding with a phased rollout of refunds' (dropping 'The' before CBP).
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) stated 'Any potential recovery of IEEPA tariffs represents a loss recovery'; newer filing (2026-08-13) states 'Any potential recovery of IEEPA tariffs through this established process represents a loss recovery.'
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) stated there is still uncertainty regarding the timing and process of Phase II of the refund process; newer filing (2026-08-13) omits this specific Phase II uncertainty sentence.
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) referred to 'U.S. Customs and Border Protection' in the phrase 'directing the U.S. Customs and Border Protection'; newer filing (2026-08-13) refers to 'U.S. Customs and Border Protection ("CBP")' adding the abbreviation CBP at first mention.
    • Older filing (2026-05-14) heading 'World Conflicts :' has a space before the colon; newer filing (2026-08-13) heading is 'World Conflicts:' without the space.
  • Notes:
    • Newer MD&A text appears truncated at the end of the Data section while discussing 'lost data and progr...'; full impact of any Data section changes cannot be assessed beyond the visible portion.
    • This comparison covers only the MD&A text provided; other portions of the filings (including any additional MD&A subsections) were not provided for comparison.

Risk Factors

  • Added:
    • In the August 13, 2026 filing, the 2025 Form 10-K is referenced as "the \"2025 Form 10-K\"" with the parenthetical included.
    • In the August 13, 2026 filing, Adjusted EBITDA definition includes "minus the gain on sale of our subsidiary, gains on asset divestitures" as a deduction.
    • In the August 13, 2026 filing, Adjusted operating income (loss) definition includes "gains on asset divestitures" as a deduction.
    • In the August 13, 2026 filing, Constant currency adjusted operating income (loss) definition includes "gains on asset divestitures" as a deduction.
    • In the August 13, 2026 filing, Adjusted net income (loss) and Adjusted earnings (loss) per share definitions include "the gain on sale of our subsidiary, gains on asset divestitures" as deductions.
    • In the August 13, 2026 filing, the Comparable Retail Sales discussion states comparable retail sales were adjusted to normalize the "27-week Prior Year YTD Period with the 26-week Year To Date Period."
  • Removed:
    • In the May 14, 2026 filing, the 2025 Form 10-K is referenced without the parenthetical "\"2025 Form 10-K\"" and just as "our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 3, 2026."
    • In the May 14, 2026 filing, the Comparable Retail Sales discussion states comparable retail sales were adjusted to normalize the "14-week Prior Year Quarter with the 13-week First Quarter."
  • Reworded:
    • [object Object]
    • [object Object]
    • [object Object]
    • [object Object]
    • [object Object]
    • [object Object]
    • [object Object]
  • Notes:
    • The provided texts are portions of the MD&A or financial discussion sections, not the actual Risk Factors item, despite the section label.
    • The newer text is truncated mid-sentence in the Components of Results of Operations section; the older text is also truncated. Full comparison of that section is not possible.
    • Both texts appear to be excerpted sections, so any changes outside the provided excerpts are not assessed.

AI-assisted comparison of two SEC filing sections. It describes wording and theme changes only, makes no materiality, legal, or investment judgement, and is not financial advice. Informational only — not financial advice.

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Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

1 open-market purchase and 1 open-market sale by insiders in the last 90 days, of which we have read Form 4 filings through 2026-10-04. The 5 days since 2026-10-04 have not been checked yet.

  • Last 90 days · read to 2026-10-041 buy ($40221) · 1 sell ($305623) — 1 buying, 1 selling insiders
  • Last 180 days · read to 2026-10-042 buys ($140951) · 1 sell ($305623) — 2 buying, 1 selling insiders

Activity heuristic: mixed (a transparent product heuristic from the counts above, not a prediction or advice)

Most recent open-market transaction: 2026-08-20. Based on Form 4 filings read through 2026-10-04; anything filed since is not yet included.

View full insider trading history → View SEC Form 3/4/5 filings

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Only open-market purchases (SEC code P) and sales (code S) are counted here. Option exercises, vesting/awards, gifts, and shares withheld for taxes are excluded — they are compensation or mechanical, not open-market conviction. Sales may be planned and non-discretionary (e.g. a Rule 10b5-1 plan) and are not necessarily bearish; open-market buying is not a recommendation to buy. Informational only — not financial advice.

Institutional ownership (13F)

5 institutional 13F filers reported holding FOSL as of 2026-06-30 (quarter-end position, filed within 45 days).

  • Distinct 13F filers 5
  • Reported shares held 5,780,755
  • Reported value $23,932,324

reported quarterly holdings change (2026-03-31 → 2026-06-30): 0 new, 4 increased, 1 decreased, 0 exited. Change counts cover only managers that filed 13F reports in BOTH quarters, derived between two quarter-end snapshots — not same-day trades; a single manager is never said to have "bought" or "sold".

Institutional holdings are quarter-end long positions reported on SEC Form 13F-HR, filed up to 45 days after the quarter ends — they are delayed, are not real-time trades, exclude short positions and most non-US securities, and are not investment advice. Any increase/decrease is a reported change between two quarterly snapshots, not a same-day purchase or sale. These are quarter-end snapshots from the 13F filings on SEC EDGAR, filed within 45 days — not real-time, and any change is a difference between two quarterly reports, not a same-day trade. Informational only — not financial advice.

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Short interest (FINRA)

FOSL had 7,369,529 shares of reported short interest as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (delayed, bi-monthly; not real-time).

FOSL had 12.5% of its shares outstanding sold short as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (percent of FLOAT would be higher — float is not disclosed in the source). FINRA reported 10.92 days to cover at the same settlement.

  • Reported short interest (shares) 7,369,529
  • Short interest (% of shares outstanding) 12.5%
  • Prior settlement (shares) 6,957,323
  • Reported change 5.92%
  • Days to cover (reported) 10.92

Reported to FINRA as of the 2026-09-15 settlement date. Short interest is reported to FINRA and published on a delayed, bi-monthly schedule (as of a settlement date, disseminated roughly eight business days later) — it is NOT real-time, does not cover every venue or all US trading, and is not a short-squeeze prediction or investment advice. Days-to-cover is the value FINRA reports; percent of float is not shown because the source file carries no share-count denominator — where a percent appears it is of shares OUTSTANDING, the larger base, and is therefore a floor on percent of float. Informational only — not financial advice.

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Competitors & peers

AI-enriched competitor set. Linked names are companies covered by stocks-llm; other named peers are shown for reference only.

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Frequently asked questions

What does FOSSIL GROUP INC (FOSL) do?

Fossil Group is a global design, marketing, and distribution company specializing in consumer fashion accessories, including traditional watches, jewelry, handbags, and small leather goods. The company manages a diverse portfolio of owned and licensed global brands distributed through wholesale channels, third-party distributors, and its own retail stores and e-commerce websites.

What sector is FOSSIL GROUP INC (FOSL) in?

FOSSIL GROUP INC (FOSL) is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Its industry is Fashion accessories and watches. It trades on NASDAQ.

Who are FOSSIL GROUP INC's (FOSL) competitors?

Notable peers of FOSSIL GROUP INC (FOSL) include Movado Group, Citizen Watch Co., Seiko Group Corporation, Swatch Group and Capri Holdings. This peer set is informational only — not financial advice.

Is FOSSIL GROUP INC (FOSL) overbought or oversold right now?

FOSSIL GROUP INC (FOSL) is currently neither overbought nor oversold — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 67, in the neutral middle (as of 2026-10-08). RSI describes recent price momentum, not a forecast — informational only, not financial advice.

Where does stocks-llm's data on FOSL come from?

Fundamentals come from SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-03 for the rest; prices are market data, as of 2026-09-03; company filings and profile facts come from SEC EDGAR. All figures are delayed daily-close data shown with their as-of date — informational only, not financial advice.

Fundamentals: SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-03 for the rest. Filings: SEC EDGAR. Prices are delayed daily-close data.

Last updated 2026-10-08.

Informational only — NOT financial advice. All figures are delayed daily-close data from SEC EDGAR & market data, shown with their as-of date.