Assured Guaranty (AGO)
Financials · financial guaranty insurance · NYSE
Assured Guaranty is a leading provider of financial guarantee insurance and credit enhancement, safeguarding investors in the public finance and infrastructure sectors.
What Assured Guaranty does
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets. The company operates through its insurance subsidiaries, providing financial guarantees that protect bondholders against non-payment of principal and interest. Additionally, the company engages in asset management activities and annuity reinsurance.
Themes: financial guaranty insurance, public finance, infrastructure investment, asset management, annuity reinsurance
Fundamentals
- Price$70.72 as of 2026-10-08 close
- Market cap$3.1B as of 2026-08-05 (share count; price 2026-10-08)
- 1-year return-14.3% 2025-10-08 close $82.49 → 2026-10-08 close $70.72
- P/E8.07 as of 2026-10-08
- Net margin+45.3% FY2025, SEC XBRL
- ROE+8.7% FY2025, SEC XBRL
- Debt / equity0.31 as of 2026-09-03
- Revenue growth (YoY)+5.5% as of 2026-09-03
- Revenue CAGR (3y)+15.4% SEC XBRL
- Beta0.56 as of 2026-09-03
- Last reported earnings2026-08-06 SEC EDGAR Form 8-K (Item 2.02)
Dividend: yield +2.2%; at least 18 years of non-decreasing per-share dividends (SEC XBRL) — we do not hold the year before it, so the real streak may be longer.
How AGO compares in its sector
- price-to-earnings ratiobottom 25% 513 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-10-08
- net profit margintop 25% 344 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-09-03
- return on equitymiddle range 559 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-09-03
- 3-year revenue CAGRmiddle range 347 covered Financials peers
- indicated dividend yieldmiddle range 468 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-09-03
Position among covered Financials companies that report each metric (minimum 5 peers). A relative position within our covered catalog — not a valuation, quality, or investment judgment. A higher percentile is simply a higher value (for P/E, more expensive on earnings — never "better"). Informational only.
Top 10 scores & list membership
AGO is not currently in any published Top 10 list. Its scores are below.
Top 10 score
56.9 #366 of 1,379 scored · #118 of 220 in Financials
Capital return 97th (net share count bought back over the year 10.3, consecutive years of dividend increases 18 years) and valuation 94th (price to book 0.6, price to earnings 8.1); weakest is trend (22nd, a "death cross" — its 50-day average is below its 200-day).
Scores as of 8 Oct 2026. Each bar is a percentile: how this company ranked against every company the score ranked, 0–100. A list is a published formula and its output, not a recommendation. Method version 4.
Dividend coverage (FY2025)
Covered by reported results. In FY2025, AGO's dividend was covered by reported results (earnings payout 14%, operating-cash-flow payout 26%). This describes past coverage, not a forecast.
- Earnings payout14% dividends / net income
- Operating-cash-flow payout26% dividends / operating cash flow — capital spending was not reported, so this does not subtract it
Coverage derived from reported SEC EDGAR XBRL figures for FY2025 (dividends paid vs. net income and free cash flow, same fiscal year). This describes PAST coverage for one fiscal year — it does not predict whether a dividend will be maintained, raised, or cut, and a one-year payout ratio can be distorted by non-recurring items. Informational only — not financial advice.
How Assured Guaranty looks technically
Assured Guaranty (AGO) is trading 12.5% below its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a long-term downtrend. Its 50-day average crossed below its 200-day average about 132 trading days ago — a "death cross", a bearish long-term signal. A strong downtrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 34, with sellers in control. Momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 48, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30). MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bullish about 4 trading days ago (its momentum flipped positive). It made a new 20-day low about 7 trading days ago. It is 23.5% below its highest point of the past year.
Trend
7
| Distance from the 200-day | it is trading 12.5% below its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a long-term downtrend | -12.5% |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day moving average | its average price over the last 50 trading days — a short-term trend line — is $73.99 | $73.99 |
| 200-day moving average | its average price over the last 200 trading days — the long-term trend line — is $80.81 | $80.81 |
| Swing structure | its recent peaks and dips disagree — one of them is rising while the other is not, so there is no clean up or down pattern in the swings | mixed — one of the two is not confirming |
| Last swing turn | its last significant turn was a swing low 7 calendar days ago — the swings before that are what the structure reading is measured on | 7 sessions |
| Since the 50/200 cross | its 50-day average crossed below its 200-day average about 132 trading days ago — a "death cross", a bearish long-term signal | 132 sessions |
| Trend strength (14-day ADX) | a strong downtrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 34, with sellers in control | 34.2 |
Momentum
3
| 14-day RSI | momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 48, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30) | 47.9 |
|---|---|---|
| Position in its 14-day range | it is trading near the top of its 14-day range ($67.24 to $71.47) — its "stochastic" reading is 82 out of 100, where 0 would mean closing exactly at the 14-session low and 100 exactly at the high. This measures WHERE the price sits inside its recent range, which is a different question from the RSI beside it: RSI is a momentum gauge, measuring how FAST the price has been moving, so a stock can drift quietly to the bottom of its range with an ordinary RSI, or fall sharply and still sit in the middle. It has been climbing within that range over the last few sessions. | 82.3 |
| Since the MACD crossed zero | MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bullish about 4 trading days ago (its momentum flipped positive) | 4 sessions |
Range
12
| 52-week high | its highest closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days) was $92.39 | $92.39 |
|---|---|---|
| From the 52-week high | it is 23.5% below its 52-week high (its highest price of the past year) | -23.5% |
| Above the 52-week low | it is 5.2% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year) | +5.2% |
| Below the 52-week high | it is 23.5% below its highest point of the past year | 23.5% |
| Since a 20-day breakout | it made a new 20-day low about 7 trading days ago | 7 sessions |
| Since a 55-day breakout | it made a new 55-day low about 7 trading days ago | 7 sessions |
| All-time high | its highest closing price on record is $96.60 (set on 2024-02-28) | $96.60 |
| Given back of the 52-week move | over the past year its closes ranged ($67.72 to $92.18), and it has recovered only a small part of its fall from last year’s high — 12% of it. Chart-watchers call 61.8%-65% given back the "golden pocket" — for this company that is $82.84 to $83.62. It is watched widely enough that orders cluster there, which is the honest reason it matters; it is not a forecast. | 12.3% |
| From the all-time high | it is 26.8% below its all-time high | -26.8% |
| Nearest price level | it is trading 4.4% below a resistance level at $73.81 — a price it turned at five times since 2025-04-07, most recently on 2026-08-25. Since 2024-10-08 it has 0 such levels below the current price and 10 above. Levels like these describe where the price has reversed or paused before; they are not a forecast of where it will go. | +4.4% |
| All-time low | its lowest closing price on record is $2.69 (set on 2009-03-04) | $2.69 |
| Above the all-time low | it is 2529.0% above its all-time low | +2,529% |
Volatility
5
| Band width vs its own 6 months | day-to-day price swings are about average versus its own recent 6-month history | 36th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Typical daily range | in a typical session it travels about $1.46 between its high and its low — about 2.1% of its price. That is its "average true range" over the last 14 sessions, which also counts the distance from the previous close, so a day that opens well away from yesterday counts as the large move it was | $1.46 |
| Bollinger bands (20-day, ±2σ) | most of its recent trading has stayed between about $67.10 and $72.88 — the "Bollinger bands", a range drawn two standard deviations either side of its 20-day average price, which widens when the stock gets more volatile and narrows when it settles | $67.10 – $69.99 – $72.88 |
| Typical daily range (% of price) | its price moves about 2.1% in a typical session — calmer than most companies we cover. This is the average gap between a session's high and low over the last 14 sessions, counting overnight moves, expressed against the current price so it can be compared with companies trading at any price | 2.1% |
| Stretch from the 200-day average | it is trading 6.9 daily ranges below its 200-day average price (12.5% below it in plain percentage terms) — a way of asking how far it has stretched from its own average in units of how far it normally moves in a day, so a calm company and a jumpy one can be compared on the same scale | 6.9 daily ranges below its 200-day average |
Volume
1
| Volume vs its 30-day average | trading volume is about normal versus its 30-day average | 0.65× |
|---|
Analyst
2
| Change in the average price target | analysts' average price target is unchanged from the prior reading | 0.0% |
|---|---|---|
| Change in the consensus rating | the analyst consensus rating is unchanged since the prior reading | unchanged |
Candlestick patterns
1
| Since a doji | 4 sessions ago it opened and closed at almost the same price after trading through a wider range — a "doji", the classic picture of buyers and sellers finishing the session level | 4 sessions ago |
|---|
Price gaps
2
| Gap at the open | it opened on 2026-10-08 0.2% below the previous session's close — an overnight gap, the part of the move that happened while the market was shut, and traded back through that level before the close | -0.2% |
|---|---|---|
| Gap filled | a 2.5% gap up opened on 2026-09-25 has been "filled" 7 sessions ago — price traded back through the level the gap left behind, and it took 2 sessions to close | 7 sessions ago |
Price streaks
1
| Closing streak | it closed higher in its latest session, after a session that did not close higher — a single up day rather than a run | 1 session up |
|---|
Relative strength
4
| vs market, 1 month | over the past 1 month this stock lagged the market by 4.2 percentage points (the stock lost 3.1% while the market gained 1.0%) | -4.2% |
|---|---|---|
| vs market, 3 months | over the past 3 months this stock lagged the market by 18.4 percentage points (the stock lost 14.5% while the market gained 3.8%) | -18.4% |
| vs market, 6 months | over the past 6 months this stock lagged the market by 30.8 percentage points (the stock lost 13.4% while the market gained 17.5%) | -30.8% |
| vs market, 12 months | over the past 12 months this stock lagged the market by 29.2 percentage points (the stock lost 14.3% while the market gained 15.0%) | -29.3% |
Signal agreement
2
| Bullish technical signals | 1 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it is currently in a bullish state: MACD momentum is positive — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 1 of 9 |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish technical signals | 6 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it are currently in a bearish state: a "death cross" — its 50-day average is below its 200-day, trading below its 200-day average, a strong downtrend, with sellers in control, lagging the market over 6 months, near the top of its 14-day range (overbought), trading below the Ichimoku cloud — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 6 of 9 |
Trend (Ichimoku cloud)
1
| Vs the Ichimoku cloud | trading 8.8% below the Ichimoku cloud — a band drawn from where its own highs and lows sat up to 2026-09-01 and projected forward over today's price, the side traders read as an established downtrend, with the band above acting as the level that would have to be cleared. The band itself is moderate, spanning 3.5% of the share price. | -8.8% |
|---|
Volume-weighted price
2
| Vs this year’s average price paid | the price is 10% below the average price paid so far this year, so the typical buyer over that stretch is under water. That average is $78.59 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 190 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | -10.0% |
|---|---|---|
| Vs the average paid since it last reported | the price is 2% below the average price paid since it last reported on 2026-08-06 (its 8-K), so the typical buyer over that stretch is under water. That average is $72.39 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 45 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | -2.3% |
Price levels it has turned at before
AGO last closed at $70.72 on 2026-10-08. Since 2024-10-08 it has turned at 0 prices below its last close and 10 above; the 3 nearest above are listed, nearest first.
| Level | Side | Distance | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| $73.81 | Resistance | 4.4% above the last close | turned there five times · 2025-04-07 to 2026-08-25 |
| $76.96 | Resistance | 8.8% above the last close | turned there twice · 2026-08-18 to 2026-08-28 |
| $79.42 | Resistance | 12.3% above the last close | turned there six times · 2025-08-18 to 2026-05-20 |
A level is a price this company reversed or paused at more than once — they describe past behaviour, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Wave structure
No Elliott-wave labelling currently fits its swings: the recent highs and lows do not satisfy the three rules a five-wave count has to obey, so there is no count to show rather than a count we are unsure about.
Read from daily closes as of 2026-10-08.
An Elliott-wave count describes the swings already printed and the level that would disprove it. It is not a forecast, a target, or advice.
Screens: Trading below the 200-day moving average · Pulled back from the 12-month high · MACD just crossed bullish (12/26/9) · lagging the market · Stretched far below its 200-day average (6+ daily ranges) · At the top of its 14-day range (stochastic above 80) | Learn: moving average · golden cross · adx · rsi · macd · breakout · fifty two week high low
Based on daily closing prices as of 2026-10-08. Describes past price behavior only — informational, not financial advice.
Analyst consensus
- Consensus ratingStrong Buy (1.33 mean, 1=Strong Buy…5=Strong Sell) — 3 analysts
- Mean price target$91.00 range $85.00 – $97.00
Analyst estimates, as of 2026-10-08. These are third-party analyst opinions and price targets, aggregated — not a recommendation, prediction, or advice from stocks-llm. Informational only.
Analyst EPS estimate for AGO
- Consensus EPS estimate$1.70 next reporting period, as of 2026-10-08
- Estimate change, 30 days-$0.1114 (-6.2%) from $1.81, on 2026-09-07, 31-day window
- Readings revised upward11% of 9 comparable readings
The consensus estimate for the next reporting period, and how it has moved between readings of that SAME period. A change is measured only between readings estimating one period — when a company reports, the consensus moves to the next quarter and the two numbers are not comparable. Informational only, not a forecast and not advice.
Key risks (from latest filing)
["Exposure to credit losses in the financial guaranty portfolio.","Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations affecting investment income and derivative valuations.","Reliance on municipal and infrastructure market issuance volumes."]
What changed in the latest 10-Q
AI-assisted comparison of AGO's 10-Q filed 2026-08-07 against the prior one filed 2026-05-08.
Management's Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
- Added:
- Newer filing includes '(viii) any rating agency action in relation to Assured Guaranty, and/or of any securities Assured Guaranty has issued, and/or of transactions that Assured Guaranty has insured, including requirements to maintain rating agency capital redundancy and to hold additional capital against certain insured exposures;' as risk factor (viii).
- Newer filing includes 'or reinsurance' in risk factor (vi), making it 'reduction in the amount or market rates of return of available insurance or reinsurance opportunities and/or the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance and reinsurance'.
- Removed:
- Older filing included '(xxi) any rating agency action in relation to Assured Guaranty, and/or of any securities Assured Guaranty has issued, and/or of transactions that Assured Guaranty has insured, including rating agency requirements to hold additional capital against insured exposures;' as risk factor (xxi), which is not present in that position in the newer filing.
- Reworded:
- Newer filing renumbers the rating agency risk factor from (xxi) in the older filing to (viii) in the newer filing, placing it earlier after risk mitigation strategies.
- Newer filing changes 'third party reinsurance' (older) to 'third-party reinsurance' (newer) in risk factor (vii).
- Newer filing changes 'available insurance opportunities and/or the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance' (older) to 'available insurance or reinsurance opportunities and/or the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance and reinsurance' (newer) in risk factor (vi).
- Newer filing changes rating agency risk factor wording from 'including rating agency requirements to hold additional capital against insured exposures' (older) to 'including requirements to maintain rating agency capital redundancy and to hold additional capital against certain insured exposures' (newer).
- Notes:
- The newer filing text ends mid-sentence at 'For these statement' and does not include the concluding sentence present in the older filing ('For these statements, Assured Guaranty claims the protection of the safe harbor for forward l...'), so the comparison is limited to the text available in the newer filing.
Risk Factors
- Added:
- In the newer filing (filed 2026-08-07), the repurchase table reflects second quarter 2026 data with monthly periods April 1 - April 30, May 1 - May 31, and June 1 - June 30, and totals of 560,400 shares purchased at an average price of $80.70, with 553,564 shares purchased as part of the publicly announced program.
- In the newer filing (filed 2026-08-07), footnote (2) states repurchases were as of August 5, 2026, with a cumulative total of 158 million common shares repurchased for $6.0 billion at an average price of $38.01 per share, and that as of August 5, 2026 the Company was authorized to repurchase an additional $121 million of common shares on a settlement basis.
- In the newer filing (filed 2026-08-07), footnote (2) states the Company evaluates planned uses of available capital on a quarterly basis, which may include growth opportunities in its financial guaranty insurance and annuity reinsurance businesses, maintaining a capital cushion to support its existing business and share repurchases.
- In the newer filing (filed 2026-08-07), the 10b5-1 Trading Plans disclosure states that during second quarter 2026 none of the Company's directors or officers adopted, terminated or modified a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement.
- Removed:
- In the older filing (filed 2026-05-08), the repurchase table reflected first quarter 2026 data with monthly periods January 1 - January 31, February 1 - February 28, and March 1 - March 31, and totals of 1,108,688 shares purchased at an average price of $85.88, with 881,981 shares purchased as part of the publicly announced program.
- In the older filing (filed 2026-05-08), footnote (2) stated repurchases were as of May 6, 2026, with a cumulative total of 157 million common shares repurchased for $6.0 billion at an average price of $37.93 per share, and that as of May 6, 2026 the Company was authorized to repurchase an additional $147 million of common shares on a settlement basis.
- In the older filing (filed 2026-05-08), footnote (2) stated the Company regularly evaluates the level of its share repurchase program on a quarter-to-quarter basis, including alternative uses of available capital, and that the Company currently plans to reduce its share repurchases in order to use a portion of its available capital to support growth opportunities in its financial guaranty insurance and annuity reinsurance businesses, in addition to other strategic considerations.
- In the older filing (filed 2026-05-08), the 10b5-1 Trading Plans disclosure stated that during first quarter 2026 none of the Company's directors or officers adopted, terminated or modified a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement.
- Reworded:
- The same repurchase table disclosure structure is used in both filings, but the newer filing (filed 2026-08-07) updates the reporting period and accompanying figures from first quarter 2026 to second quarter 2026.
- In footnote (2), the share repurchase program description changed from a statement that the Company 'regularly evaluates the level of its share repurchase program on a quarter-to-quarter basis, including alternative uses of available capital' (older filing, filed 2026-05-08) to a statement that the Company 'evaluates on a quarterly basis planned uses of available capital' (newer filing, filed 2026-08-07).
- The reference in footnote (2) to the Company's current plan to reduce share repurchases to support growth opportunities (older filing, filed 2026-05-08) does not appear in the newer filing (filed 2026-08-07).
- The newer filing (filed 2026-08-07) includes 'maintaining a capital cushion to support its existing business' as a possible use of available capital, which was not included in the older filing (filed 2026-05-08).
- The Item 1A Risk Factors section text is identical in both filings; the majority of the transmitted later sections are not part of the Risk Factors section, and the newer filing's exhibit list omits exhibits 2.1, 2.2, and 10.1 through 10.7 that appeared in the older filing's exhibit list.
- Notes:
- The provided sections labeled as Risk Factors include Item 2, Item 5, Item 6, and signature pages, which are not Risk Factors content, but those portions were still compared as provided.
AI-assisted comparison of two SEC filing sections. It describes wording and theme changes only, makes no materiality, legal, or investment judgement, and is not financial advice. Informational only — not financial advice.
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
1 open-market purchase and 0 open-market sales by insiders in the last 90 days, of which we have read Form 4 filings through 2026-10-04. The 5 days since 2026-10-04 have not been checked yet.
- Last 90 days · read to 2026-10-041 buy ($5M) · 0 sells — 1 buying insider
- Last 180 days · read to 2026-10-042 buys ($11M) · 3 sells ($4M) — 1 buying, 2 selling insiders
Activity heuristic: net buying (a transparent product heuristic from the counts above, not a prediction or advice)
Most recent open-market transaction: 2026-07-22. Based on Form 4 filings read through 2026-10-04; anything filed since is not yet included.
View full insider trading history → View SEC Form 3/4/5 filingsAsk about AGO's insider activity →
Only open-market purchases (SEC code P) and sales (code S) are counted here. Option exercises, vesting/awards, gifts, and shares withheld for taxes are excluded — they are compensation or mechanical, not open-market conviction. Sales may be planned and non-discretionary (e.g. a Rule 10b5-1 plan) and are not necessarily bearish; open-market buying is not a recommendation to buy. Informational only — not financial advice.
Short interest (FINRA)
AGO had 2,277,921 shares of reported short interest as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (delayed, bi-monthly; not real-time).
AGO had 5.18% of its shares outstanding sold short as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (percent of FLOAT would be higher — float is not disclosed in the source). FINRA reported 5.69 days to cover at the same settlement.
- Reported short interest (shares) 2,277,921
- Short interest (% of shares outstanding) 5.18%
- Prior settlement (shares) 2,260,343
- Reported change 0.78%
- Days to cover (reported) 5.69
Reported to FINRA as of the 2026-09-15 settlement date. Short interest is reported to FINRA and published on a delayed, bi-monthly schedule (as of a settlement date, disseminated roughly eight business days later) — it is NOT real-time, does not cover every venue or all US trading, and is not a short-squeeze prediction or investment advice. Days-to-cover is the value FINRA reports; percent of float is not shown because the source file carries no share-count denominator — where a percent appears it is of shares OUTSTANDING, the larger base, and is therefore a floor on percent of float. Informational only — not financial advice.
Competitors & peers
- Build America Mutual
- Ambac Financial Group (AMBC)
- MBIA Inc. (MBI)
AI-enriched competitor set. Linked names are companies covered by stocks-llm; other named peers are shown for reference only.
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Frequently asked questions
What does Assured Guaranty (AGO) do?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets. The company operates through its insurance subsidiaries, providing financial guarantees that protect bondholders against non-payment of principal and interest. Additionally, the company engages in asset management activities and annuity reinsurance.
What sector is Assured Guaranty (AGO) in?
Assured Guaranty (AGO) is classified in the Financials sector. Its industry is financial guaranty insurance. It trades on NYSE.
Does AGO pay a dividend?
Yes — Assured Guaranty (AGO) pays a dividend, with an indicated yield of about 2.16% and at least 18 years of non-decreasing per-share dividends (SEC EDGAR XBRL) — we do not hold the year before it, so the real streak may be longer (market data, as of 2026-09-03). Informational only — not financial advice.
Who are Assured Guaranty's (AGO) competitors?
Notable peers of Assured Guaranty (AGO) include Build America Mutual, Ambac Financial Group and MBIA Inc.. This peer set is informational only — not financial advice.
Is Assured Guaranty (AGO) overbought or oversold right now?
Assured Guaranty (AGO) is currently neither overbought nor oversold — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 48, in the neutral middle (as of 2026-10-08). RSI describes recent price momentum, not a forecast — informational only, not financial advice.
Where does stocks-llm's data on AGO come from?
Fundamentals come from SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-03 for the rest; prices are market data, as of 2026-09-03; company filings and profile facts come from SEC EDGAR. All figures are delayed daily-close data shown with their as-of date — informational only, not financial advice.
Fundamentals: SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-03 for the rest. Filings: SEC EDGAR. Prices are delayed daily-close data.
Last updated 2026-10-08.
Informational only — NOT financial advice. All figures are delayed daily-close data from SEC EDGAR & market data, shown with their as-of date.