Assured Guaranty (AGO)
Financials · financial guaranty insurance · NYSE
Assured Guaranty is a leading provider of financial guarantee insurance and credit enhancement, safeguarding investors in the public finance and infrastructure sectors.
What Assured Guaranty does
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets. The company operates through its insurance subsidiaries, providing financial guarantees that protect bondholders against non-payment of principal and interest. Additionally, the company engages in asset management activities and annuity reinsurance.
Themes: financial guaranty insurance, public finance, infrastructure investment, asset management, annuity reinsurance
Fundamentals
- Price$74.44 as of 2026-08-21 close
- Market cap$3.3B as of 2026-08-21
- 1-year return-8.0% 2025-08-21 close $80.89 → 2026-08-21 close $74.44
- P/E7.99 as of 2026-08-24
- Net margin+44.7% as of 2026-08-24
- ROE+7.4% as of 2026-08-24
- Debt / equity0.31 as of 2026-08-24
- Revenue growth (YoY)+5.5% as of 2026-08-24
- Revenue CAGR (3y)+15.4% SEC XBRL
- Beta0.72 as of 2026-08-24
- Last reported earnings2026-08-06 SEC EDGAR Form 8-K (Item 2.02)
Dividend: yield +1.6%; at least 5 years of non-decreasing per-share dividends (SEC XBRL) — we do not hold the year before it, so the real streak may be longer.
How AGO compares in its sector
- price-to-earnings ratiobottom 25% 525 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- net profit margintop 10% 538 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- operating margintop 25% 534 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- return on equitybottom 25% 575 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
- 3-year revenue CAGRmiddle range 347 covered Financials peers
- indicated dividend yieldbottom 25% 453 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-08-24
Position among covered Financials companies that report each metric (minimum 5 peers). A relative position within our covered catalog — not a valuation, quality, or investment judgment. A higher percentile is simply a higher value (for P/E, more expensive on earnings — never "better"). Informational only.
Top 10 scores & list membership
AGO is not currently in any published Top 10 list. Its scores are below.
Long-term score
59.6 #195 of 987 scored · #92 of 191 in Financials
Valuation 94th (price to book 0.6, price to earnings 8.5) and financial health 80th (free cash flow margin 27.9%, debt to equity 0.3); weakest is long-term trend (14th, a strong downtrend, with sellers in control).
Short-term score
29.5 #1646 of 1,704 scored · #270 of 277 in Financials
Volume and participation 92nd: trading volume is about normal versus its 30-day average; momentum 32nd: near the bottom of its 14-day range (oversold); weakest is catalysts 11th: analysts have cut their average price target by 1.5% since the prior reading.
Scores as of 21 Aug 2026. Each bar is a percentile: how this company ranked against every company the score ranked, 0–100. A list is a published formula and its output, not a recommendation. Method version 2.
Dividend coverage (FY2025)
Covered by reported results. In FY2025, AGO's dividend was covered by reported results (earnings payout 14%, operating-cash-flow payout 26%). This describes past coverage, not a forecast.
- Earnings payout14% dividends / net income
- Operating-cash-flow payout26% dividends / operating cash flow — capital spending was not reported, so this does not subtract it
Coverage derived from reported SEC EDGAR XBRL figures for FY2025 (dividends paid vs. net income and free cash flow, same fiscal year). This describes PAST coverage for one fiscal year — it does not predict whether a dividend will be maintained, raised, or cut, and a one-year payout ratio can be distorted by non-recurring items. Informational only — not financial advice.
How Assured Guaranty looks technically
Assured Guaranty (AGO) is trading 10.7% below its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a long-term downtrend. Its 50-day average crossed below its 200-day average about 99 trading days ago — a "death cross", a bearish long-term signal. A strong downtrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 38, with sellers in control. Momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 32, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30). It made a new 20-day low about 2 trading days ago. It is 2.3% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year).
Trend
7
| Distance from the 200-day | it is trading 10.7% below its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a long-term downtrend | -10.7% |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day moving average | its average price over the last 50 trading days — a short-term trend line — is $80.30 | $80.30 |
| 200-day moving average | its average price over the last 200 trading days — the long-term trend line — is $83.39 | $83.39 |
| Swing structure | its recent peaks and dips disagree — one of them is rising while the other is not, so there is no clean up or down pattern in the swings | mixed — one of the two is not confirming |
| Last swing turn | its last significant turn was a swing low 9 calendar days ago — the swings before that are what the structure reading is measured on | 9 sessions |
| Since the 50/200 cross | its 50-day average crossed below its 200-day average about 99 trading days ago — a "death cross", a bearish long-term signal | 99 sessions |
| Trend strength (14-day ADX) | a strong downtrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 38, with sellers in control | 38.4 |
Momentum
3
| 14-day RSI | momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 32, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30) | 31.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Position in its 14-day range | it is trading right at the bottom of its 14-day range ($74.06 to $84.35) — its "stochastic" reading is 4 out of 100, where 0 would mean closing exactly at the 14-session low and 100 exactly at the high. This measures WHERE the price sits inside its recent range, which is a different question from the RSI beside it: RSI is a momentum gauge, measuring how FAST the price has been moving, so a stock can drift quietly to the bottom of its range with an ordinary RSI, or fall sharply and still sit in the middle. It has been slipping within that range over the last few sessions. | 3.7 |
| Since the MACD crossed zero | MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, is in negative territory (momentum leaning bearish) | 18 sessions |
Range
12
| 52-week high | its highest closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days) was $92.39 | $92.39 |
|---|---|---|
| From the 52-week high | it is 19.4% below its 52-week high (its highest price of the past year) | -19.4% |
| Above the 52-week low | it is 2.3% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year) | +2.3% |
| Below the 52-week high | it is 19.4% below its highest point of the past year | 19.4% |
| Since a 20-day breakout | it made a new 20-day low about 2 trading days ago | 2 sessions |
| Since a 55-day breakout | it made a new 55-day high about 19 trading days ago | 19 sessions |
| All-time high | its highest closing price on record is $96.60 (set on 2024-02-28) | $96.60 |
| Given back of the 52-week move | over the past year its closes ranged ($73.20 to $92.18), and it has recovered only a small part of its fall from last year’s high — 7% of it. Chart-watchers call 61.8%-65% given back the "golden pocket" — for this company that is $84.93 to $85.54. It is watched widely enough that orders cluster there, which is the honest reason it matters; it is not a forecast. | 6.5% |
| From the all-time high | it is 22.9% below its all-time high | -22.9% |
| Nearest price level | it is sitting right on a resistance level at $74.49 — a price it turned at four times since 2024-09-09, most recently on 2026-08-12. Since 2024-08-21 it has 0 such levels below the current price and 9 above. Levels like these describe where the price has reversed or paused before; they are not a forecast of where it will go. | +0.1% |
| All-time low | its lowest closing price on record is $2.69 (set on 2009-03-04) | $2.69 |
| Above the all-time low | it is 2667.3% above its all-time low | +2,667% |
Volatility
5
| Band width vs its own 6 months | day-to-day price swings are unusually wide versus its own recent history (wider than about 98% of the past ~6 months) | 98th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Typical daily range | in a typical session it travels about $1.69 between its high and its low — about 2.3% of its price. That is its "average true range" over the last 14 sessions, which also counts the distance from the previous close, so a day that opens well away from yesterday counts as the large move it was | $1.69 |
| Bollinger bands (20-day, ±2σ) | most of its recent trading has stayed between about $70.73 and $87.69 — the "Bollinger bands", a range drawn two standard deviations either side of its 20-day average price, which widens when the stock gets more volatile and narrows when it settles | $70.73 – $79.21 – $87.69 |
| Typical daily range (% of price) | its price moves about 2.3% in a typical session — calmer than most companies we cover. This is the average gap between a session's high and low over the last 14 sessions, counting overnight moves, expressed against the current price so it can be compared with companies trading at any price | 2.3% |
| Stretch from the 200-day average | it is trading 5.3 daily ranges below its 200-day average price (10.7% below it in plain percentage terms) — a way of asking how far it has stretched from its own average in units of how far it normally moves in a day, so a calm company and a jumpy one can be compared on the same scale | 5.3 daily ranges below its 200-day average |
Volume
1
| Volume vs its 30-day average | trading volume is about normal versus its 30-day average | 1.45× |
|---|
Analyst
2
| Change in the average price target | analysts have cut their average price target by 1.5% since the prior reading | -1.4% |
|---|---|---|
| Change in the consensus rating | not available for this company yet | n/a |
Candlestick patterns
1
| Since a doji | 7 sessions ago it opened and closed at almost the same price after trading through a wider range — a "doji", the classic picture of buyers and sellers finishing the session level | 7 sessions ago |
|---|
Price gaps
2
| Gap at the open | it opened on 2026-08-21 0.3% below the previous session's close — an overnight gap, the part of the move that happened while the market was shut, and traded back through that level before the close | -0.3% |
|---|---|---|
| Gap filled | a 2.3% gap up opened on 2026-06-11 has been "filled" 7 sessions ago — price traded back through the level the gap left behind, and it took 41 sessions to close | 7 sessions ago |
Price streaks
1
| Closing streak | it closed higher in its latest session, after a session that did not close higher — a single up day rather than a run | 1 session up |
|---|
Relative strength
4
| vs market, 1 month | over the past 1 month this stock lagged the market by 14.5 percentage points (the stock lost 12.2% while the market gained 2.3%) | -14.5% |
|---|---|---|
| vs market, 3 months | over the past 3 months this stock lagged the market by 8.5 percentage points (the stock lost 5.4% while the market gained 3.1%) | -8.5% |
| vs market, 6 months | over the past 6 months this stock lagged the market by 26.8 percentage points (the stock lost 15.8% while the market gained 11.1%) | -26.9% |
| vs market, 12 months | over the past 12 months this stock lagged the market by 28.5 percentage points (the stock lost 8.0% while the market gained 20.5%) | -28.5% |
Signal agreement
2
| Bullish technical signals | 1 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it is currently in a bullish state: near the bottom of its 14-day range (oversold) — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 1 of 9 |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish technical signals | 7 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it are currently in a bearish state: a strong downtrend, with sellers in control, a "death cross" — its 50-day average is below its 200-day, trading below its 200-day average, a fresh 20-day low, MACD momentum is negative, lagging the market over 6 months, trading below the Ichimoku cloud — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 7 of 9 |
Trend (Ichimoku cloud)
1
| Vs the Ichimoku cloud | trading 5.9% below the Ichimoku cloud — a band drawn from where its own highs and lows sat up to 2026-07-16 and projected forward over today's price, the side traders read as an established downtrend, with the band above acting as the level that would have to be cleared. The band itself is moderate, spanning 3.0% of the share price. | -5.9% |
|---|
Volume-weighted price
2
| Vs this year’s average price paid | the price is 8% below the average price paid so far this year, so the typical buyer over that stretch is under water. That average is $81.21 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 157 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | -8.3% |
|---|---|---|
| Vs the average paid since it last reported | the price is 2% below the average price paid since it last reported on 2026-08-06 (its 8-K), so the typical buyer over that stretch is under water. That average is $75.91 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 12 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | -1.9% |
Price levels it has turned at before
AGO last closed at $74.44 on 2026-08-21. Since 2024-08-21 it has turned at 0 prices below its last close and 9 above; the 3 nearest above are listed, nearest first.
| Level | Side | Distance | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| $74.49 | Resistance | 0.1% above the last close | turned there four times · 2024-09-09 to 2026-08-12 |
| $79.27 | Resistance | 6.5% above the last close | turned there 7 times · 2024-10-01 to 2026-05-20 |
| $81.57 | Resistance | 9.6% above the last close | turned there 7 times · 2024-09-04 to 2026-07-15 |
A level is a price this company reversed or paused at more than once — they describe past behaviour, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Wave structure
No Elliott-wave labelling currently fits its swings: the recent highs and lows do not satisfy the three rules a five-wave count has to obey, so there is no count to show rather than a count we are unsure about.
Read from daily closes as of 2026-08-21.
An Elliott-wave count describes the swings already printed and the level that would disprove it. It is not a forecast, a target, or advice.
Screens: Trading below the 200-day moving average · Near the 52-week low · Broke down to a new 20-day low · Analyst price target recently CUT · lagging the market · At the bottom of its 14-day range (stochastic below 20) | Learn: moving average · golden cross · adx · rsi · breakout · fifty two week high low
Based on daily closing prices as of 2026-08-21. Describes past price behavior only — informational, not financial advice.
Analyst consensus
- Consensus ratingBuy (2.00 mean, 1=Strong Buy…5=Strong Sell) — 3 analysts
- Mean price target$90.33 range $80.00 – $97.00; median $94.00
Analyst estimates, as of 2026-08-24. These are third-party analyst opinions and price targets, aggregated — not a recommendation, prediction, or advice from stocks-llm. Informational only.
Analyst EPS estimate for AGO
- Consensus EPS estimate$1.81 next reporting period, as of 2026-08-24
Change over time is not available yet: it needs two readings of the same reporting period at least 30 days apart, and we have been recording these estimates since 2026-08-04. An estimate for a DIFFERENT quarter is not a revision, so a reading from before the last report is never compared with one after it.
The consensus estimate for the next reporting period, and how it has moved between readings of that SAME period. A change is measured only between readings estimating one period — when a company reports, the consensus moves to the next quarter and the two numbers are not comparable. Informational only, not a forecast and not advice.
Key risks (from latest filing)
["Exposure to credit losses in the financial guaranty portfolio.","Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations affecting investment income and derivative valuations.","Reliance on municipal and infrastructure market issuance volumes."]
What changed in the latest 10-Q
AI-assisted comparison of AGO's 10-Q filed 2026-05-08 against the prior one filed 2025-11-07.
Management's Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
- Added:
- Item (xi) in newer filing references 'risks related to the expansion into annuity reinsurance and the launching of Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd.' (filed 2026-05-08)
- Item (xii) in newer filing references 'the failure of Assured Guaranty to successfully integrate acquired businesses, including Assured Guaranty's acquisition of Warwick Company (UK) Limited' (filed 2026-05-08)
- Reference to '2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K' in newer filing (filed 2026-05-08)
- Removed:
- Detailed geopolitical references in older filing including 'Russia's invasion of Ukraine and intentional or accidental escalation between The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia, conflict in the Middle East, confrontation over Iran's nuclear program, the polarized political environment in the United States (U.S.), and strategic competition and tensions between the U.S. and China' replaced with simplified language in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Phrase 'including alternative investments' in factor (vii) removed in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- References to specific strategic transaction counterparties 'Sound Point Capital Management, LP' and 'Assured Healthcare Partners LLC (AHP)' removed in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- References to acronyms 'CCS' and 'VIEs' removed and replaced with spelled-out versions in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Phrase 'the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls... will result in credit losses or liquidity claims on obligations of state, territorial and local governments, their related authorities, public corporations and other obligors' simplified to just 'obligations' in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Specific insurance exposure examples including 'below-investment-grade (BIG) healthcare, United Kingdom (U.K.) regulated utility, European renewable energy, and Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) exposures' removed in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Separate factor regarding 'the impact of Assured Guaranty satisfying its obligations under insurance policies with respect to legacy insured Puerto Rico bonds' removed in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Detailed competitive description 'including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry, nonpayment insurance and other forms of capital saving or risk syndication available to banks and insurers' simplified to 'including from new market entrants and alternative forms of credit protection' in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Detailed rating agency action description simplified in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Phrase 'the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms' changed to 'the inability of Assured Guaranty to access capital on acceptable terms or have sufficient liquidity to cover unexpected stress' in newer filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Reference to '2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K' in older filing (filed 2025-11-07)
- Reworded:
- Factor (ii) changed from specific geopolitical conflicts to broader 'geopolitical risk, terrorism and political violence risk, including regional and global military conflicts, and strategic competition and trade confrontation' (filed 2026-05-08)
- Factor (iii) cybersecurity language changed from 'potentially increasing the risks' to simpler phrasing about 'the impacts of artificial intelligence' (filed 2026-05-08)
- Factor (v) changed from 'stresses in the financial condition of banking institutions in the U.S.' to 'stresses in banking institutions' (filed 2026-05-08)
- Factor (vi) changed from 'reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand' to 'reduction in the amount or market rates of return of available insurance opportunities and/or the demand' (filed 2026-05-08)
- Factor (vii) renumbered and shortened: removed 'including alternative investments' and specific negative consequences language (filed 2026-05-08)
- Factor regarding strategic transactions simplified by removing specific entity names and transaction details (filed 2026-05-08)
- Factor regarding noncontrolling interests changed from 'minority interest' to 'noncontrolling interest' (filed 2026-05-08)
- Acronym explanations removed: 'CCS' and 'VIEs' are no longer spelled out inline (filed 2026-05-08)
- Loss of key personnel moved from factor (xiii) position to different numbering in newer filing (filed 2026-05-08)
- Generic reference to 'The Company' changed to 'Assured Guaranty' in some instances in newer filing (filed 2026-05-08)
- Notes:
- Newer filing text is truncated at the end ('For these statements, Assured Guaranty claims the protection of the safe harbor for forward l'); comparison may be incomplete
- Older filing text also appears truncated mid-sentence; full comparison of concluding language not possible
- Factor numbering changed between filings due to additions and removals; direct factor-by-factor comparison requires renumbering
Risk Factors
The two filings could not be meaningfully compared for this section.
AI-assisted comparison of two SEC filing sections. It describes wording and theme changes only, makes no materiality, legal, or investment judgement, and is not financial advice. Informational only — not financial advice.
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
1 open-market purchase and 1 open-market sale by insiders in the last 90 days.
- Last 90 days1 buy ($5M) · 1 sell ($77813) — 1 buying, 1 selling insiders
- Last 180 days2 buys ($11M) · 3 sells ($4M) — 1 buying, 2 selling insiders
Activity heuristic: mixed (a transparent product heuristic from the counts above, not a prediction or advice)
Most recent open-market transaction: 2026-07-22. As of 2026-08-24.
View full insider trading history → View SEC Form 3/4/5 filingsAsk about AGO's insider activity →
Only open-market purchases (SEC code P) and sales (code S) are counted here. Option exercises, vesting/awards, gifts, and shares withheld for taxes are excluded — they are compensation or mechanical, not open-market conviction. Sales may be planned and non-discretionary (e.g. a Rule 10b5-1 plan) and are not necessarily bearish; open-market buying is not a recommendation to buy. Informational only — not financial advice.
Short interest (FINRA)
AGO had 1,899,223 shares of reported short interest as of the 2026-07-31 FINRA settlement date (delayed, bi-monthly; not real-time).
AGO had 4.32% of its shares outstanding sold short as of the 2026-07-31 FINRA settlement date (percent of FLOAT would be higher — float is not disclosed in the source). FINRA reported 5.91 days to cover at the same settlement.
- Reported short interest (shares) 1,899,223
- Short interest (% of shares outstanding) 4.32%
- Prior settlement (shares) 1,928,878
- Reported change -1.54%
- Days to cover (reported) 5.91
Reported to FINRA as of the 2026-07-31 settlement date. Short interest is reported to FINRA and published on a delayed, bi-monthly schedule (as of a settlement date, disseminated roughly eight business days later) — it is NOT real-time, does not cover every venue or all US trading, and is not a short-squeeze prediction or investment advice. Days-to-cover is the value FINRA reports; percent of float is not shown because the source file carries no share-count denominator — where a percent appears it is of shares OUTSTANDING, the larger base, and is therefore a floor on percent of float. Informational only — not financial advice.
Competitors & peers
- Build America Mutual
- Ambac Financial Group (AMBC)
- MBIA Inc. (MBI)
AI-enriched competitor set. Linked names are companies covered by stocks-llm; other named peers are shown for reference only.
Compare AGO vs…
Assured Guaranty is found in…
Frequently asked questions
What does Assured Guaranty (AGO) do?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets. The company operates through its insurance subsidiaries, providing financial guarantees that protect bondholders against non-payment of principal and interest. Additionally, the company engages in asset management activities and annuity reinsurance.
What sector is Assured Guaranty (AGO) in?
Assured Guaranty (AGO) is classified in the Financials sector. Its industry is financial guaranty insurance. It trades on NYSE.
Does AGO pay a dividend?
Yes — Assured Guaranty (AGO) pays a dividend, with an indicated yield of about 1.65% and at least 5 years of non-decreasing per-share dividends (SEC EDGAR XBRL) — we do not hold the year before it, so the real streak may be longer (market data, as of 2026-08-24). Informational only — not financial advice.
Who are Assured Guaranty's (AGO) competitors?
Notable peers of Assured Guaranty (AGO) include Build America Mutual, Ambac Financial Group and MBIA Inc.. This peer set is informational only — not financial advice.
Is Assured Guaranty (AGO) overbought or oversold right now?
Assured Guaranty (AGO) is currently neither overbought nor oversold — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 32, in the neutral middle (as of 2026-08-21). RSI describes recent price momentum, not a forecast — informational only, not financial advice.
Where does stocks-llm's data on AGO come from?
Fundamentals and prices come from market data, as of 2026-08-24; company filings and profile facts come from SEC EDGAR. All figures are delayed daily-close data shown with their as-of date — informational only, not financial advice.
Fundamentals: market data, as of 2026-08-24. Filings: SEC EDGAR. Prices are delayed daily-close data.
Last updated 2026-08-21.
Informational only — NOT financial advice. All figures are delayed daily-close data from SEC EDGAR & market data, shown with their as-of date.