APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI)
Financials · Commercial Mortgage REITs · NYSE
A commercial mortgage REIT focused on originating senior loans and managing a portfolio of commercial real estate debt and distressed assets.
What APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA does
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily originates, acquires, and manages senior performing commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company also holds real estate owned, which consists of properties acquired through foreclosure or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure in the ordinary course of its lending business. It is managed by an affiliate of Apollo Global Management.
Themes: commercial real estate lending, distressed asset management, yield-focused investing
Fundamentals
- Price$6.24 as of 2026-10-08 close
- Market cap$800M as of 2026-08-07 (share count; price 2026-10-08)
- 1-year return-37.2% 2025-10-08 close $9.94 → 2026-10-08 close $6.24
- P/E6.85 as of 2026-10-08
- Net margin+46.7% FY2025, SEC XBRL
- ROE+6.8% FY2025, SEC XBRL
- Debt / equity4.50 as of 2026-09-03
- Revenue growth (YoY)-4.8% as of 2026-09-03
- Revenue CAGR (3y)-3.7% SEC XBRL
- Beta0.71 as of 2026-09-03
- Last reported earnings2026-08-11 SEC EDGAR Form 8-K (Item 2.02)
Dividend: yield +15.6%; 1-year non-decreasing per-share dividend streak (SEC XBRL).
How ARI compares in its sector
- price-to-earnings ratiobottom 10% 513 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-10-08
- net profit margintop 25% 344 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-09-03
- return on equitymiddle range 559 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-09-03
- 3-year revenue CAGRbottom 10% 347 covered Financials peers
- indicated dividend yieldtop 10% 468 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-09-03
Position among covered Financials companies that report each metric (minimum 5 peers). A relative position within our covered catalog — not a valuation, quality, or investment judgment. A higher percentile is simply a higher value (for P/E, more expensive on earnings — never "better"). Informational only.
Dividend coverage (FY2025)
Exceeded at least one reported measure. In FY2025, ARI's dividend exceeded at least one reported measure of what it earned or generated (earnings payout 111%, operating-cash-flow payout 99%). A payout above 100% in one year is not necessarily unsustainable, but it is not fully covered by that measure.
- Earnings payout111% dividends / net income
- Operating-cash-flow payout99% dividends / operating cash flow — capital spending was not reported, so this does not subtract it
Coverage derived from reported SEC EDGAR XBRL figures for FY2025 (dividends paid vs. net income and free cash flow, same fiscal year). This describes PAST coverage for one fiscal year — it does not predict whether a dividend will be maintained, raised, or cut, and a one-year payout ratio can be distorted by non-recurring items. Informational only — not financial advice.
How APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA looks technically
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) is trading 33.6% below its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a long-term downtrend. Its 50-day average crossed below its 200-day average about 55 trading days ago — a "death cross", a bearish long-term signal. A strong downtrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 59, with sellers in control. Momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 32, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30). MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bullish about 6 trading days ago (its momentum flipped positive). It made a new 20-day low about 9 trading days ago. It is 2.1% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year).
Trend
8
| Distance from the 200-day | it is trading 33.6% below its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a long-term downtrend | -33.6% |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day moving average | its average price over the last 50 trading days — a short-term trend line — is $6.62 | $6.62 |
| 200-day moving average | its average price over the last 200 trading days — the long-term trend line — is $9.40 | $9.40 |
| Swing structure | each recent peak has been lower than the one before it and each dip deeper — the pattern chart-watchers call a downtrend, which describes where price has already been and not where it goes next | lower highs and lower lows |
| Last swing turn | its last significant turn was a swing high 56 calendar days ago — the swings before that are what the structure reading is measured on | 56 sessions |
| Wave structure | its recent swings can be read as a five-part downward sequence — what Elliott-wave chartists call an impulse — now in leg 3 of five; the labelling fails if price closes above 6.995. It is the only labelling that fits, though not with textbook proportions, and it describes the swings already printed, not what comes next. | possible downward five-wave sequence, in wave 3 (atypical proportions) |
| Since the 50/200 cross | its 50-day average crossed below its 200-day average about 55 trading days ago — a "death cross", a bearish long-term signal | 55 sessions |
| Trend strength (14-day ADX) | a strong downtrend is in place — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 59, with sellers in control | 58.8 |
Momentum
3
| 14-day RSI | momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 32, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30) | 31.9 |
|---|---|---|
| Position in its 14-day range | it is trading in the lower half of its 14-day range ($6.11 to $6.50) — its "stochastic" reading is 33 out of 100, where 0 would mean closing exactly at the 14-session low and 100 exactly at the high. This measures WHERE the price sits inside its recent range, which is a different question from the RSI beside it: RSI is a momentum gauge, measuring how FAST the price has been moving, so a stock can drift quietly to the bottom of its range with an ordinary RSI, or fall sharply and still sit in the middle. It has been climbing within that range over the last few sessions. | 32.9 |
| Since the MACD crossed zero | MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bullish about 6 trading days ago (its momentum flipped positive) | 6 sessions |
Range
12
| 52-week high | its highest closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days) was $11.24 | $11.24 |
|---|---|---|
| From the 52-week high | it is 44.5% below its 52-week high (its highest price of the past year) | -44.5% |
| Above the 52-week low | it is 2.1% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year) | +2.1% |
| Below the 52-week high | it is 44.5% below its highest point of the past year | 44.5% |
| Since a 20-day breakout | it made a new 20-day low about 9 trading days ago | 9 sessions |
| Since a 55-day breakout | it made a new 55-day low about 9 trading days ago | 9 sessions |
| All-time high | its highest closing price on record is $19.91 (set on 2017-04-27) | $19.91 |
| Given back of the 52-week move | over the past year its closes ranged ($6.20 to $11.22), and it has recovered essentially none of its fall from last year’s high — 1% of it. Chart-watchers call 61.8%-65% given back the "golden pocket" — for this company that is $9.30 to $9.46. It is watched widely enough that orders cluster there, which is the honest reason it matters; it is not a forecast. | 0.8% |
| From the all-time high | it is 68.7% below its all-time high | -68.7% |
| Nearest price level | it is trading 36.4% below a resistance level at $8.51 — a price it turned at three times since 2024-10-23, most recently on 2025-01-13. Since 2024-10-08 it has 0 such levels below the current price and 11 above. Levels like these describe where the price has reversed or paused before; they are not a forecast of where it will go. | +36.4% |
| All-time low | its lowest closing price on record is $4.12 (set on 2020-03-24) | $4.12 |
| Above the all-time low | it is 51.5% above its all-time low | +51.5% |
Volatility
5
| Band width vs its own 6 months | day-to-day price swings are about average versus its own recent 6-month history | 59th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Typical daily range | in a typical session it travels about $0.1166 between its high and its low — about 1.9% of its price. That is its "average true range" over the last 14 sessions, which also counts the distance from the previous close, so a day that opens well away from yesterday counts as the large move it was | $0.1166 |
| Bollinger bands (20-day, ±2σ) | most of its recent trading has stayed between about $6.07 and $6.61 — the "Bollinger bands", a range drawn two standard deviations either side of its 20-day average price, which widens when the stock gets more volatile and narrows when it settles | $6.07 – $6.34 – $6.61 |
| Typical daily range (% of price) | its price moves about 1.9% in a typical session — among the calmest in the catalog. This is the average gap between a session's high and low over the last 14 sessions, counting overnight moves, expressed against the current price so it can be compared with companies trading at any price | 1.9% |
| Stretch from the 200-day average | it is trading 27.1 daily ranges below its 200-day average price (33.6% below it in plain percentage terms) — a way of asking how far it has stretched from its own average in units of how far it normally moves in a day, so a calm company and a jumpy one can be compared on the same scale | 27.1 daily ranges below its 200-day average |
Volume
1
| Volume vs its 30-day average | trading volume is about normal versus its 30-day average | 1.15× |
|---|
Analyst
2
| Change in the average price target | analysts' average price target is unchanged from the prior reading | 0.0% |
|---|---|---|
| Change in the consensus rating | not available for this company yet | n/a |
Candlestick patterns
3
| Since a doji | today it opened and closed at almost the same price after trading through a wider range — a "doji", the classic picture of buyers and sellers finishing the session level | today |
|---|---|---|
| Since a bullish engulfing | 5 sessions ago it opened below the previous session's close and finished above that session's open — a "bullish engulfing" pair, where one up day more than undid the down day before it | 5 sessions ago |
| Since a bearish engulfing | 6 sessions ago it opened above the previous session's close and finished below that session's open — a "bearish engulfing" pair, where one down day more than undid the up day before it | 6 sessions ago |
Price gaps
2
| Gap at the open | it opened on 2026-10-08 0.2% above the previous session's close — an overnight gap, the part of the move that happened while the market was shut, and traded back through that level before the close | +0.2% |
|---|---|---|
| Open gap | it gapped 34.9% below the previous close 59 sessions ago and has not traded back through the level it left behind at 10.54 — an "unfilled gap", which describes a price range no trade has since crossed and is not a forecast that it will be crossed | -34.9% |
Price streaks
1
| Closing streak | it closed higher in its latest session, after a session that did not close higher — a single up day rather than a run | 1 session up |
|---|
Relative strength
4
| vs market, 1 month | over the past 1 month this stock lagged the market by 9.1 percentage points (the stock lost 8.1% while the market gained 1.0%) | -9.1% |
|---|---|---|
| vs market, 3 months | over the past 3 months this stock lagged the market by 42.3 percentage points (the stock lost 38.5% while the market gained 3.8%) | -42.3% |
| vs market, 6 months | over the past 6 months this stock lagged the market by 58.3 percentage points (the stock lost 40.9% while the market gained 17.5%) | -58.3% |
| vs market, 12 months | over the past 12 months this stock lagged the market by 52.2 percentage points (the stock lost 37.2% while the market gained 15.0%) | -52.2% |
Signal agreement
2
| Bullish technical signals | 1 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it is currently in a bullish state: MACD momentum is positive — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 1 of 9 |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish technical signals | 5 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it are currently in a bearish state: a "death cross" — its 50-day average is below its 200-day, trading below its 200-day average, a strong downtrend, with sellers in control, lagging the market over 6 months, trading below the Ichimoku cloud — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 5 of 9 |
Trend (Ichimoku cloud)
1
| Vs the Ichimoku cloud | trading 8.1% below the Ichimoku cloud — a band drawn from where its own highs and lows sat up to 2026-09-01 and projected forward over today's price, the side traders read as an established downtrend, with the band above acting as the level that would have to be cleared. The band itself is thick, spanning 30.2% of the share price, which is taken to mean a barrier that has held for a while and takes effort to cross. | -8.1% |
|---|
Volume-weighted price
2
| Vs this year’s average price paid | the price is 28% below the average price paid so far this year, so the typical buyer over that stretch is under water. That average is $8.68 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 190 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | -28.1% |
|---|---|---|
| Vs the average paid since it last reported | the price is 5% below the average price paid since it last reported on 2026-08-10 (its 10-Q), so the typical buyer over that stretch is under water. That average is $6.59 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 43 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | -5.3% |
Price levels it has turned at before
ARI last closed at $6.24 on 2026-10-08. Since 2024-10-08 it has turned at 0 prices below its last close and 11 above; the 3 nearest above are listed, nearest first.
| Level | Side | Distance | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| $8.51 | Resistance | 36.4% above the last close | turned there three times · 2024-10-23 to 2025-01-13 |
| $8.67 | Resistance | 39.0% above the last close | turned there twice · 2024-12-18 to 2025-02-03 |
| $9.07 | Resistance | 45.3% above the last close | turned there six times · 2024-10-16 to 2025-01-28 |
A level is a price this company reversed or paused at more than once — they describe past behaviour, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Wave structure
Its recent swings can be read as a five-part downward sequence — what Elliott-wave chartists call an impulse — now in leg 3 of five.
This labelling fails — stops being a possible reading at all — if it closes above $7.00.
It is the only labelling that fits these swings, though its proportions are not the textbook ones.
This reading has stood for 34 trading days, since 2026-08-21.
Read from daily closes as of 2026-10-08.
An Elliott-wave count describes the swings already printed and the level that would disprove it. It is not a forecast, a target, or advice.
Screens: Trading below the 200-day moving average · Near the 52-week low · Pulled back from the 12-month high · lagging the market · Printed a doji candle · Least volatile (2% or less typical daily range) | Learn: moving average · golden cross · adx · rsi · macd · breakout · fifty two week high low
Based on daily closing prices as of 2026-10-08. Describes past price behavior only — informational, not financial advice.
Analyst consensus
- Consensus ratingBuy (2.00 mean, 1=Strong Buy…5=Strong Sell) — 2 analysts
- Mean price target$8.00 range $7.75 – $8.25
Analyst estimates, as of 2026-10-05. These are third-party analyst opinions and price targets, aggregated — not a recommendation, prediction, or advice from stocks-llm. Informational only.
Analyst EPS estimate for ARI
- Consensus EPS estimate$0.05319 next reporting period, as of 2026-10-05
- Estimate change, 30 days+$0.631 from -$0.5778, on 2026-09-01, 34-day window
- Readings revised upward14% of 7 comparable readings
The consensus estimate for the next reporting period, and how it has moved between readings of that SAME period. A change is measured only between readings estimating one period — when a company reports, the consensus moves to the next quarter and the two numbers are not comparable. Informational only, not a forecast and not advice.
Key risks (from latest filing)
["Significant credit risk and potential for losses in the commercial mortgage loan portfolio, as evidenced by large CECL allowance adjustments and asset impairments.","Dependence on secured debt arrangements and interest rate environments to finance operations and manage liquidity.","Risks associated with managing and operating \"real estate owned\" properties acquired through loan defaults."]
What changed in the latest 10-Q
AI-assisted comparison of ARI's 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 against the prior one filed 2026-04-28.
Management's Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
- Added:
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) adds forward-looking statement subjects regarding risks from the Plan: "risks associated with the exact amount or timing of our sales of assets and liquidating distributions; unexpected costs or unexpected liabilities that may arise from the transactions contemplated by the Plan and with our ability to realize the results of the Plan."
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) adds reference to "Risk Factors" in the Special Meeting Proxy in the forward-looking statements paragraph.
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) adds new paragraphs under Overview disclosing the board's review of strategic alternatives, announcement on June 15, 2026 that dissolution and liquidation are advisable, and the filing of the Special Meeting Proxy on July 14, 2026.
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) adds disclosure that if the Plan is approved, the Company will adopt liquidation basis of accounting requiring assets and liabilities to be recognized at estimated amounts expected to be collected and settled.
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) adds updated assets under management figure for Apollo of approximately $1.05 trillion as of June 30, 2026.
- Removed:
- Older filing (2026-04-28) includes forward-looking statement subjects regarding "potential benefits and effects of the Asset Sale" and "the amount and use of proceeds from the Asset Sale," which are removed in the newer filing.
- Older filing (2026-04-28) includes a "Current Market Conditions" section discussing external events, public health issues, natural disasters, political and economic instability abroad, and sovereign debt concerns, which is removed in the newer filing.
- Older filing (2026-04-28) includes a "Results of Operations" section with "Net Income Available to Common Stockholders" and "Operating Results" subsections and financial tables, which is removed in the newer filing.
- Reworded:
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) changes the Apollo assets under management figure from approximately $938.4 billion as of December 31, 2025 to approximately $1.05 trillion as of June 30, 2026.
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) changes the description of the excluded loan in the Asset Sale from "one loan with a principal balance of $46 million which is expected to repay after the Closing Date" to "the Chicago Hotel Loan which was repaid after the Closing Date".
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) removes the sentence referencing "Note 20 - Subsequent Events" for further details on the Asset Sale.
- Newer filing (2026-08-10) adds "A portion of the proceeds from the Asset Sale were used to repay all secured credit facilities and other indebtedness and to pay transaction e" but the text appears truncated.
- Notes:
- The newer MD&A text appears truncated mid-sentence in the Asset Sale section, so changes after that point cannot be assessed.
Risk Factors
The two filings could not be meaningfully compared for this section.
AI-assisted comparison of two SEC filing sections. It describes wording and theme changes only, makes no materiality, legal, or investment judgement, and is not financial advice. Informational only — not financial advice.
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
0 open-market purchases and 2 open-market sales by insiders in the last 90 days, of which we have read Form 4 filings through 2026-10-04. The 5 days since 2026-10-04 have not been checked yet.
- Last 90 days · read to 2026-10-040 buys · 2 sells ($6586) — 1 selling insider
- Last 180 days · read to 2026-10-040 buys · 3 sells ($56579) — 2 selling insiders
Activity heuristic: net selling (a transparent product heuristic from the counts above, not a prediction or advice)
Most recent open-market transaction: 2026-08-25. Based on Form 4 filings read through 2026-10-04; anything filed since is not yet included.
View full insider trading history → View SEC Form 3/4/5 filingsAsk about ARI's insider activity →
Only open-market purchases (SEC code P) and sales (code S) are counted here. Option exercises, vesting/awards, gifts, and shares withheld for taxes are excluded — they are compensation or mechanical, not open-market conviction. Sales may be planned and non-discretionary (e.g. a Rule 10b5-1 plan) and are not necessarily bearish; open-market buying is not a recommendation to buy. Informational only — not financial advice.
Short interest (FINRA)
ARI had 4,711,179 shares of reported short interest as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (delayed, bi-monthly; not real-time).
ARI had 3.67% of its shares outstanding sold short as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (percent of FLOAT would be higher — float is not disclosed in the source). FINRA reported 2.48 days to cover at the same settlement.
- Reported short interest (shares) 4,711,179
- Short interest (% of shares outstanding) 3.67%
- Prior settlement (shares) 5,485,987
- Reported change -14.12%
- Days to cover (reported) 2.48
Reported to FINRA as of the 2026-09-15 settlement date. Short interest is reported to FINRA and published on a delayed, bi-monthly schedule (as of a settlement date, disseminated roughly eight business days later) — it is NOT real-time, does not cover every venue or all US trading, and is not a short-squeeze prediction or investment advice. Days-to-cover is the value FINRA reports; percent of float is not shown because the source file carries no share-count denominator — where a percent appears it is of shares OUTSTANDING, the larger base, and is therefore a floor on percent of float. Informational only — not financial advice.
Competitors & peers
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT)
- Starwood Property Trust (STWD)
- KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)
- Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE)
- Ladder Capital (LADR)
AI-enriched competitor set. Linked names are companies covered by stocks-llm; other named peers are shown for reference only.
Compare ARI vs…
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Frequently asked questions
What does APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) do?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily originates, acquires, and manages senior performing commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company also holds real estate owned, which consists of properties acquired through foreclosure or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure in the ordinary course of its lending business. It is managed by an affiliate of Apollo Global Management.
What sector is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) in?
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) is classified in the Financials sector. Its industry is Commercial Mortgage REITs. It trades on NYSE.
Does ARI pay a dividend?
Yes — APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) pays a dividend, with an indicated yield of about 15.58% and 1-year non-decreasing per-share dividend streak (SEC EDGAR XBRL) (market data, as of 2026-09-03). Informational only — not financial advice.
Who are APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA's (ARI) competitors?
Notable peers of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) include Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Starwood Property Trust, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, Ares Commercial Real Estate and Ladder Capital. This peer set is informational only — not financial advice.
Is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) overbought or oversold right now?
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) is currently neither overbought nor oversold — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 32, in the neutral middle (as of 2026-10-08). RSI describes recent price momentum, not a forecast — informational only, not financial advice.
Where does stocks-llm's data on ARI come from?
Fundamentals come from SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-03 for the rest; prices are market data, as of 2026-09-03; company filings and profile facts come from SEC EDGAR. All figures are delayed daily-close data shown with their as-of date — informational only, not financial advice.
Fundamentals: SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-03 for the rest. Filings: SEC EDGAR. Prices are delayed daily-close data.
Last updated 2026-10-08.
Informational only — NOT financial advice. All figures are delayed daily-close data from SEC EDGAR & market data, shown with their as-of date.