OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG)
Financials · Specialty Insurance and Insurance Distribution · NYSE
A specialty insurance holding company focused on a diversified portfolio of managing general agents and program-based property and casualty underwriting.
What OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC does
Octave Specialty Group is a financial services holding company operating two main segments: Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance. The Insurance Distribution business manages a portfolio of Managing General Agents (MGAs) and underwriters providing specialty insurance products, while the Specialty P&C segment, branded as Everspan, provides insurance program underwriting. The company recently exited its legacy financial guarantee business to focus on these core specialty insurance operations.
Recent developments
The company recently launched a proprietary AI-driven underwriting platform designed to automate risk analysis and expedite underwriting decisions. It also reported strong organic revenue growth of 44% in its Insurance Distribution segment for the second quarter of 2026, supported by recent acquisitions like ArmadaCare.
From OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC's filing of 2026-08-06.
Themes: insurance distribution, managing general agent (MGA) platform, specialty P&C insurance, AI in insurance, commercial insurance
Fundamentals
- Price$4.77 as of 2026-10-08 close
- Market cap$215M as of 2026-08-04 (share count; price 2026-10-08)
- 1-year return-44.9% 2025-10-08 close $8.65 → 2026-10-08 close $4.77
- P/En/a negative earnings
- Net margin-103.1% FY2025, SEC XBRL
- ROE-31.1% FY2025, SEC XBRL
- Debt / equity0.16 as of 2026-09-02
- Revenue growth (YoY)+45.8% as of 2026-09-02
- Revenue CAGR (3y)+67.3% SEC XBRL
- Beta0.66 as of 2026-09-02
- Last reported earnings2026-08-06 SEC EDGAR Form 8-K (Item 2.02)
How OSG compares in its sector
- net profit marginbottom 10% 344 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-09-02
- return on equitybottom 10% 559 covered Financials peers, as of 2026-09-02
- 3-year revenue CAGRtop 10% 347 covered Financials peers
Position among covered Financials companies that report each metric (minimum 5 peers). A relative position within our covered catalog — not a valuation, quality, or investment judgment. A higher percentile is simply a higher value (for P/E, more expensive on earnings — never "better"). Informational only.
How OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC looks technically
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG) is trading 12.2% below its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a long-term downtrend. Its 50-day average crossed below its 200-day average about 178 trading days ago — a "death cross", a bearish long-term signal. A trend is forming but not yet strong — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 24 (a reading of 25+ marks a strong trend). Momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 58, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30). MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bullish about 5 trading days ago (its momentum flipped positive). It made a new 20-day low about 9 trading days ago. It is 54.0% below its highest point of the past year.
Trend
7
| Distance from the 200-day | it is trading 12.2% below its 200-day average, the long-term trend line — a long-term downtrend | -12.2% |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day moving average | its average price over the last 50 trading days — a short-term trend line — is $4.70 | $4.70 |
| 200-day moving average | its average price over the last 200 trading days — the long-term trend line — is $5.43 | $5.43 |
| Swing structure | its recent peaks and dips disagree — one of them is rising while the other is not, so there is no clean up or down pattern in the swings | mixed — one of the two is not confirming |
| Last swing turn | its last significant turn was a swing low 10 calendar days ago — the swings before that are what the structure reading is measured on | 10 sessions |
| Since the 50/200 cross | its 50-day average crossed below its 200-day average about 178 trading days ago — a "death cross", a bearish long-term signal | 178 sessions |
| Trend strength (14-day ADX) | a trend is forming but not yet strong — ADX, a 0–100 trend-strength gauge, is 24 (a reading of 25+ marks a strong trend) | 24.3 |
Momentum
3
| 14-day RSI | momentum is neutral — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 58, neither overbought (above 70) nor oversold (below 30) | 57.8 |
|---|---|---|
| Position in its 14-day range | it is trading near the top of its 14-day range ($3.98 to $4.82) — its "stochastic" reading is 95 out of 100, where 0 would mean closing exactly at the 14-session low and 100 exactly at the high. This measures WHERE the price sits inside its recent range, which is a different question from the RSI beside it: RSI is a momentum gauge, measuring how FAST the price has been moving, so a stock can drift quietly to the bottom of its range with an ordinary RSI, or fall sharply and still sit in the middle. It has been climbing within that range over the last few sessions. | 94.6 |
| Since the MACD crossed zero | MACD, a trend-momentum gauge, turned bullish about 5 trading days ago (its momentum flipped positive) | 5 sessions |
Range
12
| 52-week high | its highest closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days) was $10.38 | $10.38 |
|---|---|---|
| From the 52-week high | it is 54.0% below its 52-week high (its highest price of the past year) | -54.0% |
| Above the 52-week low | it is 22.9% above its 52-week low (its lowest price of the past year) | +22.9% |
| Below the 52-week high | it is 54.0% below its highest point of the past year | 54.0% |
| Since a 20-day breakout | it made a new 20-day low about 9 trading days ago | 9 sessions |
| Since a 55-day breakout | it made a new 55-day low about 9 trading days ago | 9 sessions |
| All-time high | its highest closing price on record is $35.61 (set on 2014-03-04) | $35.61 |
| Given back of the 52-week move | over the past year its closes ranged ($3.94 to $10.08), and it has recovered only a small part of its fall from last year’s high — 14% of it. Chart-watchers call 61.8%-65% given back the "golden pocket" — for this company that is $7.73 to $7.93. It is watched widely enough that orders cluster there, which is the honest reason it matters; it is not a forecast. | 13.5% |
| From the all-time high | it is 86.6% below its all-time high | -86.6% |
| Nearest price level | it is trading 5.1% below a resistance level at $5.01 — a price it turned at three times since 2026-02-24, most recently on 2026-06-03. Since 2024-10-08 it has 0 such levels below the current price and 12 above. Levels like these describe where the price has reversed or paused before; they are not a forecast of where it will go. | +5.1% |
| All-time low | its lowest closing price on record is $3.88 (set on 2026-04-10) | $3.88 |
| Above the all-time low | it is 22.9% above its all-time low | +22.9% |
Volatility
5
| Band width vs its own 6 months | day-to-day price swings are about average versus its own recent 6-month history | 55th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Typical daily range | in a typical session it travels about $0.2048 between its high and its low — about 4.3% of its price. That is its "average true range" over the last 14 sessions, which also counts the distance from the previous close, so a day that opens well away from yesterday counts as the large move it was | $0.2048 |
| Bollinger bands (20-day, ±2σ) | most of its recent trading has stayed between about $3.92 and $5.04 — the "Bollinger bands", a range drawn two standard deviations either side of its 20-day average price, which widens when the stock gets more volatile and narrows when it settles | $3.92 – $4.48 – $5.04 |
| Typical daily range (% of price) | its price moves about 4.3% in a typical session — about typical for the companies we cover. This is the average gap between a session's high and low over the last 14 sessions, counting overnight moves, expressed against the current price so it can be compared with companies trading at any price | 4.3% |
| Stretch from the 200-day average | it is trading 3.2 daily ranges below its 200-day average price (12.2% below it in plain percentage terms) — a way of asking how far it has stretched from its own average in units of how far it normally moves in a day, so a calm company and a jumpy one can be compared on the same scale | 3.2 daily ranges below its 200-day average |
Volume
1
| Volume vs its 30-day average | trading volume is about normal versus its 30-day average | 1.56× |
|---|
Analyst
2
| Change in the average price target | analysts' average price target is unchanged from the prior reading | 0.0% |
|---|---|---|
| Change in the consensus rating | not available for this company yet | n/a |
Candlestick patterns
1
| Since a doji | 1 session ago it opened and closed at almost the same price after trading through a wider range — a "doji", the classic picture of buyers and sellers finishing the session level | 1 session ago |
|---|
Price gaps
3
| Gap at the open | it opened on 2026-10-08 1.6% below the previous session's close — an overnight gap, the part of the move that happened while the market was shut, and traded back through that level before the close | -1.6% |
|---|---|---|
| Open gap | it gapped 9.7% below the previous close 43 sessions ago and has not traded back through the level it left behind at 5.66 — an "unfilled gap", which describes a price range no trade has since crossed and is not a forecast that it will be crossed | -9.7% |
| Gap filled | a 2.2% gap up opened on 2026-09-03 has been "filled" 15 sessions ago — price traded back through the level the gap left behind, and it took 9 sessions to close | 15 sessions ago |
Price streaks
1
| Closing streak | it closed higher in its latest session, after a session that did not close higher — a single up day rather than a run | 1 session up |
|---|
Relative strength
4
| vs market, 1 month | over the past 1 month this stock lagged the market by 4.7 percentage points (the stock lost 3.6% while the market gained 1.0%) | -4.7% |
|---|---|---|
| vs market, 3 months | over the past 3 months this stock lagged the market by 25.6 percentage points (the stock lost 21.8% while the market gained 3.8%) | -25.6% |
| vs market, 6 months | over the past 6 months this stock lagged the market by 13.5 percentage points (the stock gained 3.9% while the market gained 17.5%) | -13.5% |
| vs market, 12 months | over the past 12 months this stock lagged the market by 59.8 percentage points (the stock lost 44.9% while the market gained 15.0%) | -59.8% |
Signal agreement
2
| Bullish technical signals | 1 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it is currently in a bullish state: MACD momentum is positive — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 1 of 9 |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish technical signals | 5 of the 9 technical signals we can compute for it are currently in a bearish state: a "death cross" — its 50-day average is below its 200-day, trading below its 200-day average, lagging the market over 6 months, near the top of its 14-day range (overbought), trading below the Ichimoku cloud — these describe past price behaviour, not a forecast | 5 of 9 |
Trend (Ichimoku cloud)
1
| Vs the Ichimoku cloud | trading 1.4% below the Ichimoku cloud — a band drawn from where its own highs and lows sat up to 2026-09-01 and projected forward over today's price, the side traders read as an established downtrend, with the band above acting as the level that would have to be cleared. The band itself is thick, spanning 13.9% of the share price, which is taken to mean a barrier that has held for a while and takes effort to cross. | -1.4% |
|---|
Volume-weighted price
2
| Vs this year’s average price paid | the price is 11% below the average price paid so far this year, so the typical buyer over that stretch is under water. That average is $5.38 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 192 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | -11.3% |
|---|---|---|
| Vs the average paid since it last reported | the price is 3% above the average price paid since it last reported on 2026-08-06 (its 10-Q), so the typical buyer over that stretch is showing a gain. That average is $4.61 — a volume-weighted average of daily closes over 45 sessions, not a true tick-by-tick VWAP. | +3.4% |
Price levels it has turned at before
OSG last closed at $4.77 on 2026-10-08. Since 2024-10-08 it has turned at 0 prices below its last close and 12 above; the 3 nearest above are listed, nearest first.
| Level | Side | Distance | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| $5.01 | Resistance | 5.1% above the last close | turned there three times · 2026-02-24 to 2026-06-03 |
| $6.28 | Resistance | 31.7% above the last close | turned there three times · 2025-04-07 to 2026-07-17 |
| $6.45 | Resistance | 35.1% above the last close | turned there twice · 2025-06-13 to 2026-02-06 |
A level is a price this company reversed or paused at more than once — they describe past behaviour, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Wave structure
No Elliott-wave labelling currently fits its swings: the recent highs and lows do not satisfy the three rules a five-wave count has to obey, so there is no count to show rather than a count we are unsure about.
Read from daily closes as of 2026-10-08.
An Elliott-wave count describes the swings already printed and the level that would disprove it. It is not a forecast, a target, or advice.
Screens: Trading below the 200-day moving average · Pulled back from the 12-month high · MACD just crossed bullish (12/26/9) · lagging the market · At the top of its 14-day range (stochastic above 80) · Trading below the Ichimoku cloud | Learn: moving average · golden cross · adx · rsi · macd · breakout · fifty two week high low
Based on daily closing prices as of 2026-10-08. Describes past price behavior only — informational, not financial advice.
Analyst consensus
- Mean price target$11.67 range $8.00 – $15.00; median $12.00
Analyst estimates, as of 2026-10-04. These are third-party analyst opinions and price targets, aggregated — not a recommendation, prediction, or advice from stocks-llm. Informational only.
Analyst EPS estimate for OSG
- Consensus EPS estimate-$0.05 next reporting period, as of 2026-10-04
- Estimate change, 30 days$0.00 from -$0.05, on 2026-08-30, 35-day window
- Readings revised upward0% of 5 comparable readings
The consensus estimate for the next reporting period, and how it has moved between readings of that SAME period. A change is measured only between readings estimating one period — when a company reports, the consensus moves to the next quarter and the two numbers are not comparable. Informational only, not a forecast and not advice.
Key risks (from latest filing)
["Exposure to volatility in insurance underwriting and market conditions for niche specialty risks.","Integration and operational risks associated with acquisitions of MGA/U businesses.","Dependence on the success of the ongoing strategic repositioning of the Everspan insurance carrier business."]
What changed in the latest 10-Q
AI-assisted comparison of OSG's 10-Q filed 2026-05-06 against the prior one filed 2025-11-10.
Management's Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
The two filings could not be meaningfully compared for this section.
Risk Factors
- Added:
- In the 2026 filing (filed 2026-05-06), Item 1A references the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 (newer reference date)
- In the 2026 filing, it states 'There have been no material changes to the risk factors we have disclosed' in the 2025 10-K
- In the 2026 filing, the company is referred to as 'Octave Specialty Group, Inc.' throughout
- In the 2026 filing, Item 2 includes detailed share repurchase information with tables showing purchases in Q1 2026
- In the 2026 filing, Item 5 includes disclosure about the 2025 Annual Meeting stockholder vote recommending annual advisory votes on executive compensation
- Removed:
- In the 2025 filing (filed 2025-11-10), there was a statement that 'Subsequent to the sale of Ambac's Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business on September 29, 2025, the Company revised the Risk Factors'
- In the 2025 filing, there was a table organizing risk factors by sections with specific page references
- In the 2025 filing, Item 1A contained detailed risk factor discussions including 'Risks Related to AFG Common Shares,' 'Risk Related to the Company's Business,' and 'Risks Related to Capital, Liquidity and Markets'
- In the 2025 filing, specific risk discussions appeared such as AFG stock price volatility, business development plans, organizational changes, reputational harm, P&C industry market cycles, and catastrophic events
- Reworded:
- The company name changed from 'Ambac Financial Group, Inc.' in the 2025 filing to 'Octave Specialty Group, Inc.' in the 2026 filing
- The reference changed from 'Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024' in the 2025 filing to 'Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025' in the 2026 filing
- Notes:
- The 2026 filing incorporates risk factors by reference to the 2025 10-K rather than restating them, making a detailed comparison of risk factor content itself not possible from the excerpts provided
- The 2025 filing excerpt appears to be from a third quarter 2025 Form 10-Q (filed in November 2025), while the 2026 filing excerpt is from a first quarter 2026 Form 10-Q
- The dramatic change in approach (detailed risk factors in 2025 filing vs. incorporation by reference in 2026 filing) and company identity appears related to a business transformation, but the filing texts themselves do not explain the transition
AI-assisted comparison of two SEC filing sections. It describes wording and theme changes only, makes no materiality, legal, or investment judgement, and is not financial advice. Informational only — not financial advice.
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
No open-market insider purchases or sales are on record for OSG — recent Form 4 activity was compensation-related (awards, option exercises, or tax withholding), not open-market buying or selling.
View full insider trading history → View SEC Form 3/4/5 filingsOnly open-market purchases (SEC code P) and sales (code S) are counted here. Option exercises, vesting/awards, gifts, and shares withheld for taxes are excluded — they are compensation or mechanical, not open-market conviction. Sales may be planned and non-discretionary (e.g. a Rule 10b5-1 plan) and are not necessarily bearish; open-market buying is not a recommendation to buy. Informational only — not financial advice.
Institutional ownership (13F)
5 institutional 13F filers reported holding OSG as of 2026-06-30 (quarter-end position, filed within 45 days).
- Distinct 13F filers 5
- Reported shares held 6,657,499
- Reported value $41,542,795
reported quarterly holdings change (2026-03-31 → 2026-06-30): 0 new, 3 increased, 2 decreased, 0 exited. Change counts cover only managers that filed 13F reports in BOTH quarters, derived between two quarter-end snapshots — not same-day trades; a single manager is never said to have "bought" or "sold".
Institutional holdings are quarter-end long positions reported on SEC Form 13F-HR, filed up to 45 days after the quarter ends — they are delayed, are not real-time trades, exclude short positions and most non-US securities, and are not investment advice. Any increase/decrease is a reported change between two quarterly snapshots, not a same-day purchase or sale. These are quarter-end snapshots from the 13F filings on SEC EDGAR, filed within 45 days — not real-time, and any change is a difference between two quarterly reports, not a same-day trade. Informational only — not financial advice.
Ask about OSG's institutional holders → See what each manager we track holds →
Short interest (FINRA)
OSG had 1,736,370 shares of reported short interest as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (delayed, bi-monthly; not real-time).
OSG had 3.85% of its shares outstanding sold short as of the 2026-09-15 FINRA settlement date (percent of FLOAT would be higher — float is not disclosed in the source). FINRA reported 3.09 days to cover at the same settlement.
- Reported short interest (shares) 1,736,370
- Short interest (% of shares outstanding) 3.85%
- Prior settlement (shares) 1,729,047
- Reported change 0.42%
- Days to cover (reported) 3.09
Reported to FINRA as of the 2026-09-15 settlement date. Short interest is reported to FINRA and published on a delayed, bi-monthly schedule (as of a settlement date, disseminated roughly eight business days later) — it is NOT real-time, does not cover every venue or all US trading, and is not a short-squeeze prediction or investment advice. Days-to-cover is the value FINRA reports; percent of float is not shown because the source file carries no share-count denominator — where a percent appears it is of shares OUTSTANDING, the larger base, and is therefore a floor on percent of float. Informational only — not financial advice.
Competitors & peers
- Brown & Brown (BRO)
- Ryan Specialty (RYAN)
- Gallagher (AJG)
- Marsh & McLennan (MMC)
- Aon (AON)
- Arch Capital Group (ACGL)
AI-enriched competitor set. Linked names are companies covered by stocks-llm; other named peers are shown for reference only.
Compare OSG vs…
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC is found in…
Frequently asked questions
What does OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG) do?
Octave Specialty Group is a financial services holding company operating two main segments: Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance. The Insurance Distribution business manages a portfolio of Managing General Agents (MGAs) and underwriters providing specialty insurance products, while the Specialty P&C segment, branded as Everspan, provides insurance program underwriting.
What sector is OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG) in?
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG) is classified in the Financials sector. Its industry is Specialty Insurance and Insurance Distribution. It trades on NYSE.
Who are OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC's (OSG) competitors?
Notable peers of OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG) include Brown & Brown, Ryan Specialty, Gallagher, Marsh & McLennan and Aon. This peer set is informational only — not financial advice.
Is OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG) overbought or oversold right now?
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG) is currently neither overbought nor oversold — its 14-day RSI (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 58, in the neutral middle (as of 2026-10-08). RSI describes recent price momentum, not a forecast — informational only, not financial advice.
Where does stocks-llm's data on OSG come from?
Fundamentals come from SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-02 for the rest; prices are market data, as of 2026-09-02; company filings and profile facts come from SEC EDGAR. All figures are delayed daily-close data shown with their as-of date — informational only, not financial advice.
Fundamentals: SEC XBRL company filings for the figures marked with a fiscal year, and market data, as of 2026-09-02 for the rest. Filings: SEC EDGAR. Prices are delayed daily-close data.
Last updated 2026-10-08.
Informational only — NOT financial advice. All figures are delayed daily-close data from SEC EDGAR & market data, shown with their as-of date.